To paraphrase Paul Revere.
Moragn Stanley just announced a 4th quarter loss of US$3.59 billion, the first in its history, and an injection of US$5 billion. But this time, unlike Citigroup (US$7 billion) and UBS (US$10 billion), it is not the Middle-East cavalry that is coming to the rescue. It is the China Investment Corp ("CIC") the Chinese sovereign-wealth investment fund set up to funnel some of the excess trade surplus dollars back into the world market.
The CIC had previously made a US$3 billion investment as a cornerstone investor in the Blackstone Group's IPO. So far, only a minor portion of the earmarked US$200 billion has been used. The sub-prime crisis has single-handedly changed the landscape of international funds flow and ownership. This is a 180 degree turnaround from just a few short months ago, when the US objected to Dubai buying up US Ports, and to China investing in Unocal. Before that, the US also objected to Hutchison a HK listed company investing the Panama Canal on the dubious allegation that it is a defacto proxy of the Chinese Government. Now, Middle East and Chinese money is welcomed with open arms. Money is green and it doesn't matter if the owner is brown or yellow.
Chinese companies have also invested in Standard Bank (ICBC US$5.6 billion), Barclays Bank (China Development Bank US$2.98 billion), and Fortis (Ping An Insurance (US$2.7 billion). Chinese M&A deal flow has been mostly outwards with the top 5 accounting for close to US$20 billion while the top 5 inflows were a measly US$3.8 billion.
Just as the Middle East is recycling petrol dollars, the Chinese are recycling trade dollars.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Waiting For The Fed
The Federal Open Market Committee announced it would cut the federal-funds rate, charged on overnight loans between banks, by a quarter-point to 4.25%. The move met most expectations, although some had hoped for a half-point cut.
The Fed has cut short-term interest rates by a full point since its first move lower this year on Sept. 18. The Fed's accompanying statement mentioned apparently slowing economic growth, as a result of mounting damage from the correction in housing markets, as well as slowing in business and consumer spending. Those who had hoped for a half-point cut to the discount rate were also disappointed. The Fed cut the discount rate, charged on direct loans to commercial banks, by a quarter-point to 4.75%, which left the spread between the two rates unchanged.
To some, the Fed statement seems out of touch with reality and missed an opportunity to bolster confidence in the credit markets.
The accompanying guidance was difficult to interpret. It did not address the balance of risks between growth and inflation and appears to be a compromise with the inflation hawks. Although it did mention slowing growth, but it also said that "some inflation risks remain" because of energy and commodity prices. The language about inflation risks was identical to language in the last FOMC statement.
Is the Fed for real? It doesn't seem to know that the market is very weak and expectations are what is driving the market.
Markets reacted badly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 294.26, or 2.1%, to 13432.77.
The Fed has cut short-term interest rates by a full point since its first move lower this year on Sept. 18. The Fed's accompanying statement mentioned apparently slowing economic growth, as a result of mounting damage from the correction in housing markets, as well as slowing in business and consumer spending. Those who had hoped for a half-point cut to the discount rate were also disappointed. The Fed cut the discount rate, charged on direct loans to commercial banks, by a quarter-point to 4.75%, which left the spread between the two rates unchanged.
To some, the Fed statement seems out of touch with reality and missed an opportunity to bolster confidence in the credit markets.
The accompanying guidance was difficult to interpret. It did not address the balance of risks between growth and inflation and appears to be a compromise with the inflation hawks. Although it did mention slowing growth, but it also said that "some inflation risks remain" because of energy and commodity prices. The language about inflation risks was identical to language in the last FOMC statement.
Is the Fed for real? It doesn't seem to know that the market is very weak and expectations are what is driving the market.
Markets reacted badly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 294.26, or 2.1%, to 13432.77.
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
How To Fix The Sub Prime Mess?Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis
The Bush Administration is proposing to freeze the resets on sub prime loans in order for borrowers to be able to continue to pay their mortgages. This of course is politically expedient. But is it good economics, some ask. Many have condemned the proposal as going against the original spirit of the contract and therefore will undermine the competitiveness of the US dollar as a store of value, and the attractiveness of the US economy as the storehouse of wealth.
The argument is that if the rate on sub prime loans are capped, then the investors will suffer (i.e. get less interest than they expected) and borrowers will therefore benefit (i.e. pay less than they would have). Who would then buy US assets?
This is a "prime" example of classroom theorising vs. market savvy. We are often bombarded by learned commentators, professors and such like, that it's "Economics 101", as if the label itself gives it credence just like the pieces of parchment on their walls. My answer is it's "Market Behaviour 101" that matters.
By capping the rate on sub prime loans, lenders will be able to keep receiving payments. It's the income stream that matters. The alternative is that borrowers will just give up and hand the properties back. The banks will then have to try to sell the properties into a weak market, get much less than their original principal, and write-off the difference.
The recent price paid by a hedge fund for e-Trade puts this at about 35 cents on the dollar. Less me ask you, would you prefer to get 95 cents (by foregoing some interest) or 35 cents. Mind you, the increase of interest on reset was not a "sure thing", i.e. the borrower has the option to repay or refinance. Who knows, if this had not blown up, they may have been able to refinance. So the lenders are only giving up something which had a theoretical value which they may or may not have counted on in the first place. They may actually have expected the borrower to refinance and get the loans off their books.
So what are we asking them to do by capping the rates? Only that they refinance the loans at some thing close to the market rate and not punitive.
During the Asian Financial Crisis, the HK government was castigated by many "free market" thinkers for intervening in the stock market to stop speculators using it as a proxy for shorting the HK dollar. Similarly, the Malaysian government was pillored for imposing exchange controls. In both cases, the governments saw the need to protect the local economy from excessive outside intervention and took the appropriate steps. The current strength of the economies belie the dire predictions of the "learned" community.
Text books on economics are written after the fact. Different people will extract and interprete facts in different ways. In time, some of these lessons will be "Economics 101". People tend to forget the market is made up of individuals who are prone to the emotions of fear and greed.
When "sub-prime" loans were the thing to be in, the captains of our financial industry were greedily fighting their way to the "feeding troughs" to get a piece of the action, afraid of losing out. In the now famous words of a certain Mr. Prince, previously of Citigroup, "When the music starts, you have to dnace". Now that "sub-prime" is a pariah, the vultures are waiting for the carcass to rot (i.e. they want 35 cents on the dollar) and trying to scare off anyone who wants to take the not yet dead bodies away for treatment by saying "let nature takes its' course, let them die!"
That's "Market economics 101". Sometimes, it is necessary to take some action that the "pure" economists abhor. Let's try and save what we can. The alternative is that we will be faced with a bigger problem of a collapse as borrowers renege, banks start writing off bad debts, and the credit crunch becomes a black hole.
The argument is that if the rate on sub prime loans are capped, then the investors will suffer (i.e. get less interest than they expected) and borrowers will therefore benefit (i.e. pay less than they would have). Who would then buy US assets?
This is a "prime" example of classroom theorising vs. market savvy. We are often bombarded by learned commentators, professors and such like, that it's "Economics 101", as if the label itself gives it credence just like the pieces of parchment on their walls. My answer is it's "Market Behaviour 101" that matters.
By capping the rate on sub prime loans, lenders will be able to keep receiving payments. It's the income stream that matters. The alternative is that borrowers will just give up and hand the properties back. The banks will then have to try to sell the properties into a weak market, get much less than their original principal, and write-off the difference.
The recent price paid by a hedge fund for e-Trade puts this at about 35 cents on the dollar. Less me ask you, would you prefer to get 95 cents (by foregoing some interest) or 35 cents. Mind you, the increase of interest on reset was not a "sure thing", i.e. the borrower has the option to repay or refinance. Who knows, if this had not blown up, they may have been able to refinance. So the lenders are only giving up something which had a theoretical value which they may or may not have counted on in the first place. They may actually have expected the borrower to refinance and get the loans off their books.
So what are we asking them to do by capping the rates? Only that they refinance the loans at some thing close to the market rate and not punitive.
During the Asian Financial Crisis, the HK government was castigated by many "free market" thinkers for intervening in the stock market to stop speculators using it as a proxy for shorting the HK dollar. Similarly, the Malaysian government was pillored for imposing exchange controls. In both cases, the governments saw the need to protect the local economy from excessive outside intervention and took the appropriate steps. The current strength of the economies belie the dire predictions of the "learned" community.
Text books on economics are written after the fact. Different people will extract and interprete facts in different ways. In time, some of these lessons will be "Economics 101". People tend to forget the market is made up of individuals who are prone to the emotions of fear and greed.
When "sub-prime" loans were the thing to be in, the captains of our financial industry were greedily fighting their way to the "feeding troughs" to get a piece of the action, afraid of losing out. In the now famous words of a certain Mr. Prince, previously of Citigroup, "When the music starts, you have to dnace". Now that "sub-prime" is a pariah, the vultures are waiting for the carcass to rot (i.e. they want 35 cents on the dollar) and trying to scare off anyone who wants to take the not yet dead bodies away for treatment by saying "let nature takes its' course, let them die!"
That's "Market economics 101". Sometimes, it is necessary to take some action that the "pure" economists abhor. Let's try and save what we can. The alternative is that we will be faced with a bigger problem of a collapse as borrowers renege, banks start writing off bad debts, and the credit crunch becomes a black hole.
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Looking For 2 Rate Cuts From The Fed
Asian markets finished mixed, with Tokyo stocks edging lower. Hong Kong gaining on hopes of a U.S. interest-rate cut.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6588.80 - 0.13%
Bombay Sensex* 19529.50 - 0.38%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28879.59 + 0.77%
Japan Nikkei 15480.19 - 0.95%
Shanghai Composite 4915.88 + 0.97%
Singapore STI 3527.87 + 0.18%
South Korea Composite 1917.83 + 0.81%
Taiwan Weighted 8651.28 + 0.79%
*Late trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6588.80 - 0.13%
Bombay Sensex* 19529.50 - 0.38%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28879.59 + 0.77%
Japan Nikkei 15480.19 - 0.95%
Shanghai Composite 4915.88 + 0.97%
Singapore STI 3527.87 + 0.18%
South Korea Composite 1917.83 + 0.81%
Taiwan Weighted 8651.28 + 0.79%
*Late trading
Monday, December 03, 2007
HK Continues To Move Up
Asian shares ended mixed. Profit-taking drove Tokyo and Shanghai lower, while Hong Kong advanced on strong blue chips buying in anticipation of the Fed lowering interest rates..
China Railway shares surged 69% on their Shanghai debut, on expectations China's infrastructure demand will remain robust in coming years. This augurs well for the H-share debut in HK on Thursday.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6597.20 + 0.05%
Bombay Sensex* 19587.36 + 1.16%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28907.77 + 0.92%
Japan Nikkei 15628.97 - 0.33%
Shanghai Composite 4868.61 - 0.07%
Singapore STI 3558.61 + 1.06%
South Korea Composite 1902.43 - 0.19%
Taiwan Weighted 8583.84 - 0.03%
*Late trading
China Railway shares surged 69% on their Shanghai debut, on expectations China's infrastructure demand will remain robust in coming years. This augurs well for the H-share debut in HK on Thursday.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6597.20 + 0.05%
Bombay Sensex* 19587.36 + 1.16%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28907.77 + 0.92%
Japan Nikkei 15628.97 - 0.33%
Shanghai Composite 4868.61 - 0.07%
Singapore STI 3558.61 + 1.06%
South Korea Composite 1902.43 - 0.19%
Taiwan Weighted 8583.84 - 0.03%
*Late trading
Friday, November 30, 2007
Asian Markets Continues Strength
Asian markets finished mostly higher, as shares rose on expectations of a U.S. interest-rate cut.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6593.60 + 1.33%
Bombay Sensex* 19363.19 + 1.89%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28643.61 + 0.57%
Japan Nikkei 15680.67 + 1.08%
Shanghai Composite 4871.77 - 2.63%
Singapore STI 3521.27 + 1.24%
South Korea Composite 1906.00 + 1.51%
Taiwan Weighted 8586.40 + 1.65%
*Late Trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6593.60 + 1.33%
Bombay Sensex* 19363.19 + 1.89%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28643.61 + 0.57%
Japan Nikkei 15680.67 + 1.08%
Shanghai Composite 4871.77 - 2.63%
Singapore STI 3521.27 + 1.24%
South Korea Composite 1906.00 + 1.51%
Taiwan Weighted 8586.40 + 1.65%
*Late Trading
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Sub Prime Fatigue Sets In
The US market closed last night up 331 or 2.6% to 13290, a two-day rally of more than 500 points. Wednesday's buying frenzy was sparked by fresh hopes of a Fed rate cut, signs of life in the battered financial sector and plunging oil prices dwon $4 to $90.
The Fed said that the economy looks weak and that housing will not recover until late 2008. One of the Fed governors also said that the Fed must be flexible on interest rates. This is seen as code words that the Fed will cut interest rates aggressively.
All that, and SUB PRIME FATIGUE. It seems that daily one bank or another is setting aside provisions for sub prime based securities. It's gotten to the stage that if you do not announce provisions, the company is immediately suspect. Think about it! If everyone around you are taking US$8 billion provisions, you would be a fool not to take a similar amount even if you don't need it or need a lower number. You can always write it back when the market becomes more sane, and take a big bonus in that year. If you don't take a big enough number now, and come back for more later, your job is on the line.
Asian stocks rallied, tracking an overnight surge on Wall Street amid hopes of another interest-rate cut. Hong Kong and Shanghai both finished more than 4% higher.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6507.20 + 1.16%
Bombay Sensex* 19003.26 + 0.34%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28482.54 + 4.06%
Japan Nikkei 15513.74 + 2.38%
Shanghai Composite 5003.33 + 4.16%
Singapore STI 3478.22 + 3.22%
South Korea Composite 1877.56 + 2.34%
Taiwan Weighted 8447.03 + 2.06%
*Late trading
The Fed said that the economy looks weak and that housing will not recover until late 2008. One of the Fed governors also said that the Fed must be flexible on interest rates. This is seen as code words that the Fed will cut interest rates aggressively.
All that, and SUB PRIME FATIGUE. It seems that daily one bank or another is setting aside provisions for sub prime based securities. It's gotten to the stage that if you do not announce provisions, the company is immediately suspect. Think about it! If everyone around you are taking US$8 billion provisions, you would be a fool not to take a similar amount even if you don't need it or need a lower number. You can always write it back when the market becomes more sane, and take a big bonus in that year. If you don't take a big enough number now, and come back for more later, your job is on the line.
Asian stocks rallied, tracking an overnight surge on Wall Street amid hopes of another interest-rate cut. Hong Kong and Shanghai both finished more than 4% higher.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6507.20 + 1.16%
Bombay Sensex* 19003.26 + 0.34%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28482.54 + 4.06%
Japan Nikkei 15513.74 + 2.38%
Shanghai Composite 5003.33 + 4.16%
Singapore STI 3478.22 + 3.22%
South Korea Composite 1877.56 + 2.34%
Taiwan Weighted 8447.03 + 2.06%
*Late trading
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Yoyo Market
Asian markets finished mostly lower Wednesday, with oil companies and blue chips weighing on Japan's benchmark index, snapping a three-day winning streak. However, HK finished up slightly after to-ing and fro-ing all day. We expected the index to open higher and it did by about 120. Then it dipped into negative territory, and went back and forth. If not for the weakness in HSBC (#5) we would have finished up higher especially with the US up 215 overnight.
Bank of China (#3988) is still weak after Temasek the Singapore Government investing arm sold 5% of its' holdings. It seems to me that now may be a good time to buy BOC.
Other Mainland companies looking for cornerstone investors may now have second thoughts about the investment horizon of Temasek.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6432.80 - 0.94%
Bombay Sensex* 18942.84 - 0.97%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27371.24 + 0.59%
Japan Nikkei 15153.78 - 0.45%
Shanghai Composite 4803.39 - 1.19%
Singapore STI 3369.72 - 0.09%
South Korea Composite 1834.69 - 1.35%
Taiwan Weighted 8276.26 - 1.19%
*Late trading
Bank of China (#3988) is still weak after Temasek the Singapore Government investing arm sold 5% of its' holdings. It seems to me that now may be a good time to buy BOC.
Other Mainland companies looking for cornerstone investors may now have second thoughts about the investment horizon of Temasek.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6432.80 - 0.94%
Bombay Sensex* 18942.84 - 0.97%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27371.24 + 0.59%
Japan Nikkei 15153.78 - 0.45%
Shanghai Composite 4803.39 - 1.19%
Singapore STI 3369.72 - 0.09%
South Korea Composite 1834.69 - 1.35%
Taiwan Weighted 8276.26 - 1.19%
*Late trading
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Black Monday Follows Black Friday
In the US, the Friday after Thanksgiving is known as "Black Friday". The market reacted quite well, and HK followed suit yesterday going up more than 1,000. But last night, amid concerns about the fall out from sub prime, credit woes and recession fears, the Dow industrials tumbled roughly 240 points, more than erasing their bounce on Black Friday. The financial sector was particularly hard-hit, with Citigroup sinking 6% to less than $30 a share and Goldman Sachs off 4%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note plunged to a two-year low.
Asian markets followed the US lead down, though Tokyo and South Korea recovered from early losses to finish higher.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6493.60 - 0.61%
Bombay Sensex* 19143.32 - 0.54%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27210.21 - 1.51%
Japan Nikkei 15222.85 + 0.58%
Shanghai Composite 4861.11 - 1.97%
Singapore STI 3372.64 - 1.34%
South Korea Composite 1859.79 + 0.24%
Taiwan Weighted 8375.76 - 1.79%
*Late trading
Asian markets followed the US lead down, though Tokyo and South Korea recovered from early losses to finish higher.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6493.60 - 0.61%
Bombay Sensex* 19143.32 - 0.54%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27210.21 - 1.51%
Japan Nikkei 15222.85 + 0.58%
Shanghai Composite 4861.11 - 1.97%
Singapore STI 3372.64 - 1.34%
South Korea Composite 1859.79 + 0.24%
Taiwan Weighted 8375.76 - 1.79%
*Late trading
Monday, November 26, 2007
November 26, 2007
Most Asian markets rallied, as investors took heart from rosy U.S. shopping figures. Hong Kong surged 4.1% and Seoul soared 4.7%.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6533.20 + 2.20%
Bombay Sensex* 19247.54 + 2.09%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27626.62 + 4.09%
Japan Nikkei 15135.21 + 1.66%
Shanghai Composite 4958.84 - 1.46%
Singapore STI 3418.58 + 2.79%
South Korea Composite 1855.33 + 4.65%
Taiwan Weighted 8528.33 + 2.23%
*Late trading
Most Asian markets rallied, as investors took heart from rosy U.S. shopping figures. Hong Kong surged 4.1% and Seoul soared 4.7%.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6533.20 + 2.20%
Bombay Sensex* 19247.54 + 2.09%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27626.62 + 4.09%
Japan Nikkei 15135.21 + 1.66%
Shanghai Composite 4958.84 - 1.46%
Singapore STI 3418.58 + 2.79%
South Korea Composite 1855.33 + 4.65%
Taiwan Weighted 8528.33 + 2.23%
*Late trading
Saturday, November 24, 2007
The Thru Train Stops
Trading throughout the week was weak as the double whammy of sub prime problems in the US, and the news that the Chinese government is turning off the illegal funds flow dominated the news.
Apparently, the Shenzhen Branch of the PBOC (people's Bank of China, the Central Bank) instructed the Shenzhen Banks to limit the amount of cash that can be withdrawn by customers to try and stem the flow of illegally remitted funds to HK. The Mainland authorities were concerned that Chinese ccitizens were abandoning the Mainland market for HK where the same shares can be bought at a lower price.
The thru train (where chinese citizens will be allowed to invest directly in the HK market) has now been put back with no date. This is apparently caused by concerns that the Mainland investors are not sophisticated enough to play in the open HK market against foreign hedge funds who will offload shares to them at a high price. Hmm, interesting concept that. They can buy the same shares of dual listed companies in HK at a lower price than in China but we are still worried that they are buying them at too high a price in HK?
I guess since HK is an open market, the hedge funds can take their money and run which is not possible on the Mainland since China is a closed market. However that still leaves the investor with shares that are still cheaper than what they have to pay for them on the Mainland.
Apparently, the Shenzhen Branch of the PBOC (people's Bank of China, the Central Bank) instructed the Shenzhen Banks to limit the amount of cash that can be withdrawn by customers to try and stem the flow of illegally remitted funds to HK. The Mainland authorities were concerned that Chinese ccitizens were abandoning the Mainland market for HK where the same shares can be bought at a lower price.
The thru train (where chinese citizens will be allowed to invest directly in the HK market) has now been put back with no date. This is apparently caused by concerns that the Mainland investors are not sophisticated enough to play in the open HK market against foreign hedge funds who will offload shares to them at a high price. Hmm, interesting concept that. They can buy the same shares of dual listed companies in HK at a lower price than in China but we are still worried that they are buying them at too high a price in HK?
I guess since HK is an open market, the hedge funds can take their money and run which is not possible on the Mainland since China is a closed market. However that still leaves the investor with shares that are still cheaper than what they have to pay for them on the Mainland.
Friday, November 23, 2007
Uncle 4 Strikes Again!
After the yo-yo gyrations of the past few days. yesterday provided some relief as the HK market gained some precious ground. This time, it's because Uncle Four (aka Mr. Lewe Shau Kww) our local "Warren Buffet" told reporters that he thinks the market will still finish the year around 30,000, and he is putting some HK$10 billion into it.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6392.40 - 0.04%
Bombay Sensex* 18852.87 + 1.76%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26498.13 + 1.90%
Japan Nikkei** 14888.77 + 0.34%
Shanghai Composite 5032.13 + 0.96%
Singapore STI 3315.57 + 0.08%
South Korea Composite 1772.88 - 1.45%
Taiwan Weighted 8342.20 - 1.85%
*Late trading
**Closed for holiday
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6392.40 - 0.04%
Bombay Sensex* 18852.87 + 1.76%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26498.13 + 1.90%
Japan Nikkei** 14888.77 + 0.34%
Shanghai Composite 5032.13 + 0.96%
Singapore STI 3315.57 + 0.08%
South Korea Composite 1772.88 - 1.45%
Taiwan Weighted 8342.20 - 1.85%
*Late trading
**Closed for holiday
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Crude Oil at US$99 Per Barrel
Asian markets were mostly lower. Hong Kong and Shanghai shares felled on U.S. economic concerns and a broader decline in Chinese markets.
Crude-oil futures broke above $99 a barrel in early trading yesterday, and energy analysts see little to reverse the trends that have sent crude on its record breaking spree.
The weakening U.S. dollar, the currency used to buy and sell oil globally, is helping reinforce the notion that oil prices could remain high. The dollar sank to a new low against the euro yesterday on pessimism about the American economy and speculation the U.S. will cut interest rates again. Combined with strong global energy demand, the market appears willing to bear prices that would have shocked many in months past.
The survey of energy analysts did say, however, that prices would simmer down at the end of 2008, as the world's richest economies begin to slowdown.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6395.10 - 0.85%
Bombay Sensex 18526.32 - 0.40%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26004.92 - 2.30%
Japan Nikkei 14888.77 - 0.34%
Shanghai Composite 4984.16 - 4.41%
Singapore STI 3312.88 - 1.03%
South Korea Composite 1799.02 - 0.44%
Taiwan Weighted 8499.37 + 0.18%
Crude-oil futures broke above $99 a barrel in early trading yesterday, and energy analysts see little to reverse the trends that have sent crude on its record breaking spree.
The weakening U.S. dollar, the currency used to buy and sell oil globally, is helping reinforce the notion that oil prices could remain high. The dollar sank to a new low against the euro yesterday on pessimism about the American economy and speculation the U.S. will cut interest rates again. Combined with strong global energy demand, the market appears willing to bear prices that would have shocked many in months past.
The survey of energy analysts did say, however, that prices would simmer down at the end of 2008, as the world's richest economies begin to slowdown.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6395.10 - 0.85%
Bombay Sensex 18526.32 - 0.40%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26004.92 - 2.30%
Japan Nikkei 14888.77 - 0.34%
Shanghai Composite 4984.16 - 4.41%
Singapore STI 3312.88 - 1.03%
South Korea Composite 1799.02 - 0.44%
Taiwan Weighted 8499.37 + 0.18%
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
It's the US Economy Now, Is It?
Asian stocks fell sharply at concerns that the U.S. economy, the most important export market for many of the region's companies, would continue to weaken.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6450.20 - 0.62%
Bombay Sensex * 18602.62 - 3.52%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26618.19 - 4.15%
Japan Nikkei 14837.66 - 2.46%
Shanghai Composite 5214.22 - 1.50%
Singapore STI 3347.20 - 2.65%
South Korea Composite 1806.99 - 3.49%
Taiwan Weighted 8484.11 - 2.27%
*Intraday
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6450.20 - 0.62%
Bombay Sensex * 18602.62 - 3.52%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26618.19 - 4.15%
Japan Nikkei 14837.66 - 2.46%
Shanghai Composite 5214.22 - 1.50%
Singapore STI 3347.20 - 2.65%
South Korea Composite 1806.99 - 3.49%
Taiwan Weighted 8484.11 - 2.27%
*Intraday
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
You Win Some, and Lose Some
Asian stocks and currencies regained some ground in a late-session sentiment shift, with currency moves highlighting an easing of the risk aversion that earlier weighed on markets.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6490.20 - 1.68%
Bombay Sensex* 19506.84 - 0.64%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27771.21 + 1.13%
Japan Nikkei 15211.52 + 1.12%
Shanghai Composite 5293.70 + 0.45%
Singapore STI 3438.27 + 0.78%
South Korea Composite 1872.24 - 1.12%
Taiwan Weighted 8680.86 + 0.00%
*Intraday
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6490.20 - 1.68%
Bombay Sensex* 19506.84 - 0.64%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27771.21 + 1.13%
Japan Nikkei 15211.52 + 1.12%
Shanghai Composite 5293.70 + 0.45%
Singapore STI 3438.27 + 0.78%
South Korea Composite 1872.24 - 1.12%
Taiwan Weighted 8680.86 + 0.00%
*Intraday
Monday, November 19, 2007
Chinese Regulators Order Lending Freeze
The Dow industrials tumbled more than 1.5% to close below 13000 for just the second time since August 16, dragged down by fresh worries about the housing and credit markets.
Asian markets ended mostly lower. Hong Kong stocks declined on concerns related to fund inflows from mainland China.
In an attempt to halt the rampant investment that is threatening to overheat the world's fastest growing major economy, Chinese regulators, over the past few weeks, have ordered commercial banks to freeze lending through the end of this year.
A China Banking Regulatory Commission official in Shanghai confirmed that local and Chinese subsidiaries of foreign banks have been requested to ensure that loans outstanding at year end don't exceed Oct. 31 levels.
Beijing's options are limited. Raising interest rates would lift the level of its currency, the yuan, to levels that exporters might find uncomfortable.
The lending freeze may, among other things, weaken earnings of key companies listed on the stock market and leave less cash in the financial system that might flow into the market.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6601.30 + 1.15%
Bombay Sensex * 19633.36 - 0.33%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27460.17 - 0.56%
Japan Nikkei 15042.56 - 0.74%
Shanghai Composite 5269.81 - 0.87%
Singapore STI 3411.72 - 0.85%
South Korea Composite 1893.47 - 1.70%
Taiwan Weighted 8680.71 - 0.96%
*Intraday
Asian markets ended mostly lower. Hong Kong stocks declined on concerns related to fund inflows from mainland China.
In an attempt to halt the rampant investment that is threatening to overheat the world's fastest growing major economy, Chinese regulators, over the past few weeks, have ordered commercial banks to freeze lending through the end of this year.
A China Banking Regulatory Commission official in Shanghai confirmed that local and Chinese subsidiaries of foreign banks have been requested to ensure that loans outstanding at year end don't exceed Oct. 31 levels.
Beijing's options are limited. Raising interest rates would lift the level of its currency, the yuan, to levels that exporters might find uncomfortable.
The lending freeze may, among other things, weaken earnings of key companies listed on the stock market and leave less cash in the financial system that might flow into the market.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6601.30 + 1.15%
Bombay Sensex * 19633.36 - 0.33%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27460.17 - 0.56%
Japan Nikkei 15042.56 - 0.74%
Shanghai Composite 5269.81 - 0.87%
Singapore STI 3411.72 - 0.85%
South Korea Composite 1893.47 - 1.70%
Taiwan Weighted 8680.71 - 0.96%
*Intraday
Friday, November 16, 2007
Curbs on Illegal Funds Flow
Asian markets fell, with Hong Kong plummeting 3.95% on worries that China is cracking down on illegal fund outflows into the city's stock market.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6526.10 - 1.04%
Bombay Sensex* 19698.36 - 0.44%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27614.43 - 3.95%
Japan Nikkei 15154.61 - 1.57%
Shanghai Composite 5316.27 - 0.91%
Singapore STI 3440.96 - 1.05%
South Korea Composite 1926.20 - 1.11%
Taiwan Weighted 8764.82 - 1.58%
*Late trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6526.10 - 1.04%
Bombay Sensex* 19698.36 - 0.44%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27614.43 - 3.95%
Japan Nikkei 15154.61 - 1.57%
Shanghai Composite 5316.27 - 0.91%
Singapore STI 3440.96 - 1.05%
South Korea Composite 1926.20 - 1.11%
Taiwan Weighted 8764.82 - 1.58%
*Late trading
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Wall Street Sneezes and We All catch A Cold
Asian markets ended lower following declines on Wall Street. Expectations of rising interest rates in China weighed on Hong Kong and Shanghai shares.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6594.40 - 0.84%
Bombay Sensex* 19784.89 - 0.72%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28751.21 - 1.42%
Japan Nikkei 15396.30 - 0.67%
Shanghai Composite 5365.26 - 0.88%
Singapore STI 3477.59 - 1.34%
South Korea Composite 1947.74 - 1.26%
Taiwan Weighted 8905.41 - 0.42%
*Late trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6594.40 - 0.84%
Bombay Sensex* 19784.89 - 0.72%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28751.21 - 1.42%
Japan Nikkei 15396.30 - 0.67%
Shanghai Composite 5365.26 - 0.88%
Singapore STI 3477.59 - 1.34%
South Korea Composite 1947.74 - 1.26%
Taiwan Weighted 8905.41 - 0.42%
*Late trading
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
End of Correction? That is the Question!
The US market rose 316 overnight and HK went up 1,362 to close at 29,166 on HK$149 billion turnover. China Mobile up 9% and accounted for 363 points of the rise.
Property counters were all up except for New World Properties which fell against the trend. Mongolian Energy #276 fell 16% from $13.80 to $11.56 after rising as high as $14.42 and then falling to as low as $9.60 before recovering near the close.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6650.00 + 1.20%
Bombay Sensex* 19868.18 + 4.37%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 29166.01 + 4.90%
Japan Nikkei 15499.56 + 2.47%
Shanghai Composite 5412.69 + 4.94%
Singapore STI 3531.45 + 1.61%
South Korea Composite 1972.58 + 2.05%
Taiwan Weighted 8942.93 + 2.47%
*Late trading
Property counters were all up except for New World Properties which fell against the trend. Mongolian Energy #276 fell 16% from $13.80 to $11.56 after rising as high as $14.42 and then falling to as low as $9.60 before recovering near the close.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6650.00 + 1.20%
Bombay Sensex* 19868.18 + 4.37%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 29166.01 + 4.90%
Japan Nikkei 15499.56 + 2.47%
Shanghai Composite 5412.69 + 4.94%
Singapore STI 3531.45 + 1.61%
South Korea Composite 1972.58 + 2.05%
Taiwan Weighted 8942.93 + 2.47%
*Late trading
Monday, November 12, 2007
Yen broke 110 to the Dollar
Hong Kong ended 3.88% lower, Tokyo dropped about 2.5% and Shanghai shed more than 2. The dollar briefly fell below ¥110 before regaining ground. But the damage has been done. The market is waiting for the unwinding of the Yen carry trade.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6523.30 - 1.27%
Bombay Sensex* 18669.20 - 1.26%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27665.73 - 3.88%
Japan Nikkei 15197.09 - 2.48%
Shanghai Composite 5187.73 - 2.40%
Singapore STI 3510.95 - 2.46%
South Korea Composite 1923.42 - 3.37%
Taiwan Weighted 8670.61 - 3.35%
*Late trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6523.30 - 1.27%
Bombay Sensex* 18669.20 - 1.26%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27665.73 - 3.88%
Japan Nikkei 15197.09 - 2.48%
Shanghai Composite 5187.73 - 2.40%
Singapore STI 3510.95 - 2.46%
South Korea Composite 1923.42 - 3.37%
Taiwan Weighted 8670.61 - 3.35%
*Late trading
Thursday, November 08, 2007
HK Hit with Aftershocks
The HK market took a big hit as the US market dropped 360 last night. After falling over 1,000 points, the market clawed its way back to close down 3%. Not a bad result considering. However, the exchange's processing capacity is more worrying.
Yesterday, all brokers reported a massive slowdown in the exchange's computer system when entering orders for Alibaba's trading debut. Some orders were left in limbo for up to 10 minutes waiting on the exchange's system to process them.
Unfortunately, during this period, we were unable to amend or cancel the orders. All we had was a message that the order was under processing. When the order was finally processed, the price may have moved beyond the specified range resulting in the order being rejected after sitting in the processing queue. Then it had to be re-entered again.
The entire issue can be avoided by increasing the size of the order queue. This is especially important after the trading spreads were narrowed and shares often trading beyond the 24 spread range. the resulting re-input and processing of orders increased the demand on processing cycles and increased line traffic. Technically, the exchange's order processing system did not slow down. By limiting the order procesing queue, the workload was pushed back into the communications network and the participants' own systems. The result is that market depth is reduced and orders have to be input many times before they can be executed. From the exchange's standpoint, increasing the capacity will mean more trades execution and bigger profits. Let's get this fixed as soon as possible.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6568.50 - 2.37%
Bombay Sensex* 19058.93 - 1.20%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28760.22 - 3.19%
Japan Nikkei 15771.57 - 2.02%
Shanghai Composite 5330.02 - 4.85%
Singapore STI** 3673.01 - 0.27%
South Korea Composite 1979.56 - 3.11%
Taiwan Weighted 8937.58 - 3.90%
*Late trading
**Closed for holiday
Yesterday, all brokers reported a massive slowdown in the exchange's computer system when entering orders for Alibaba's trading debut. Some orders were left in limbo for up to 10 minutes waiting on the exchange's system to process them.
Unfortunately, during this period, we were unable to amend or cancel the orders. All we had was a message that the order was under processing. When the order was finally processed, the price may have moved beyond the specified range resulting in the order being rejected after sitting in the processing queue. Then it had to be re-entered again.
The entire issue can be avoided by increasing the size of the order queue. This is especially important after the trading spreads were narrowed and shares often trading beyond the 24 spread range. the resulting re-input and processing of orders increased the demand on processing cycles and increased line traffic. Technically, the exchange's order processing system did not slow down. By limiting the order procesing queue, the workload was pushed back into the communications network and the participants' own systems. The result is that market depth is reduced and orders have to be input many times before they can be executed. From the exchange's standpoint, increasing the capacity will mean more trades execution and bigger profits. Let's get this fixed as soon as possible.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6568.50 - 2.37%
Bombay Sensex* 19058.93 - 1.20%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28760.22 - 3.19%
Japan Nikkei 15771.57 - 2.02%
Shanghai Composite 5330.02 - 4.85%
Singapore STI** 3673.01 - 0.27%
South Korea Composite 1979.56 - 3.11%
Taiwan Weighted 8937.58 - 3.90%
*Late trading
**Closed for holiday
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Marking Time ....
HK opened strong but succumbed to some profit taking. it still managed to close up for the day. Over the last 2 days, we have recovered half of the 1,500 point loss on Monday. It seems that with the availability of information over the internet, TV etc. the markets adjustments are shorter in duration but bigger in fluctuations. This is to be expected as everyone now have access to the news at virtually the same time.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6728.10 + 1.04%
Bombay Sensex* 19274.16 - 0.65%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 29708.93 + 0.92%
Japan Nikkei 16096.68 - 0.98%
Shanghai Composite 5601.78 + 1.18%
Singapore STI 3673.01 - 0.27%
South Korea Composite 2043.19 - 0.54%
Taiwan Weighted 9300.22 + 0.08%
*Late trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6728.10 + 1.04%
Bombay Sensex* 19274.16 - 0.65%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 29708.93 + 0.92%
Japan Nikkei 16096.68 - 0.98%
Shanghai Composite 5601.78 + 1.18%
Singapore STI 3673.01 - 0.27%
South Korea Composite 2043.19 - 0.54%
Taiwan Weighted 9300.22 + 0.08%
*Late trading
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Steady Does It
The HK market kept an even keel and managed to claw back some of the losses from yesterday. Investrors were still jittery and some have obviously decided to take some money off the table now that the "thru train" appears to have been delayed.
A series of bad news came out over the weekend when Wen Jia Bao said that the thru train will need further swtudy to ensure it does not adversely affect the Chinese market. The concern there is that too much money will leave the Shanghai market causing a crash on the Mainland.
The CSRC also reminded funds that they are to invest no more than 30% in any one market. Again, this is clearly aimed at curbing the flow of money to HK because currently, QDII funds are only allowed to invest in 1 overseas market and that is HK. There appears to be a big worry that Chinese investors will be buying into HK just in time for foreign investors to cash out, and be left holding over priced shares. This seems a bit rich because the H-shares traded in HK are a a deep discount to the corresponding A-shares in China. For example, PetroChina trades at a 150% premium to HK. Shares in HK are still cheap compared to China.
The main worry is that foreign investors will take advantage of gullible Chinese investors to off load their shares. Let them off load their shares if they want to. The story is China and they cannot afford not to buy in at the start.
Going back to PetroChina. This is definitely overvalued on the Mainland market. It is twice the market capitalisation of Exxon although it earns half the profits and have half the reserves. It is valued at 54x forecast earnings vs. Exxon 13x. Even the HK shares are over valued at 22x. Even if it manages to double the reserves and profits, it should only then be wirth as much as Exxon because oil is an international commodity.
Another story today is the listing of Alibaba. The IPO price was HK$13.50. The shares traded on the grey market yesterday at around HK$25. It opened at HK$32. Traded briefly below HK$30 and then went as high as HK$39.50 before closing slightly lower. At HK$13.50 it listed at 55x forward earnings. People expect this to the Chinese Google. There are some differences. Google is a consumer to consumer platform while Alibaba is business to business. There are a lot more consumers than there are businesses. If it is so great a deal, why have the strategic investors decided to cash out by selling their shares?
A series of bad news came out over the weekend when Wen Jia Bao said that the thru train will need further swtudy to ensure it does not adversely affect the Chinese market. The concern there is that too much money will leave the Shanghai market causing a crash on the Mainland.
The CSRC also reminded funds that they are to invest no more than 30% in any one market. Again, this is clearly aimed at curbing the flow of money to HK because currently, QDII funds are only allowed to invest in 1 overseas market and that is HK. There appears to be a big worry that Chinese investors will be buying into HK just in time for foreign investors to cash out, and be left holding over priced shares. This seems a bit rich because the H-shares traded in HK are a a deep discount to the corresponding A-shares in China. For example, PetroChina trades at a 150% premium to HK. Shares in HK are still cheap compared to China.
The main worry is that foreign investors will take advantage of gullible Chinese investors to off load their shares. Let them off load their shares if they want to. The story is China and they cannot afford not to buy in at the start.
Going back to PetroChina. This is definitely overvalued on the Mainland market. It is twice the market capitalisation of Exxon although it earns half the profits and have half the reserves. It is valued at 54x forecast earnings vs. Exxon 13x. Even the HK shares are over valued at 22x. Even if it manages to double the reserves and profits, it should only then be wirth as much as Exxon because oil is an international commodity.
Another story today is the listing of Alibaba. The IPO price was HK$13.50. The shares traded on the grey market yesterday at around HK$25. It opened at HK$32. Traded briefly below HK$30 and then went as high as HK$39.50 before closing slightly lower. At HK$13.50 it listed at 55x forward earnings. People expect this to the Chinese Google. There are some differences. Google is a consumer to consumer platform while Alibaba is business to business. There are a lot more consumers than there are businesses. If it is so great a deal, why have the strategic investors decided to cash out by selling their shares?
PetroChina: World's Biggest Company By Market Capitalisation
PetroChina's shares tripled in value on trading debut in Shanghai. It surged past Exxon Mobil to become the world's most highly valued company by market capitalization. But is this a true value?
If we applied the share price of PetroChina Co. on the Shanghai Stock Exchange to the whole of the company, China's major oil and gas producer would have a market cap of around $1.08 trillion, making it the world's biggest company. But only a mere 2.2% of its share capital is sold in the Chinese IPO and about 86% of its shares are still held by the state-owned parent.
Since very few shares are publicly traded spread -- scarcity that can drive up prices. If we were to value the company by tradeable shares the total value of PetroChina's publicly traded shares would be about $72.5 billion. In addition, PetroChina's Class A shares in China are trading at around 50 times this year's forecast earnings, compared with 20 times earnings for its Hong Kong-listed stock. Big oil companies average of 10 times forecast earnings internationally.
As I have said before, Exxon has higher reserves than PetroChina. Enough said.
If we applied the share price of PetroChina Co. on the Shanghai Stock Exchange to the whole of the company, China's major oil and gas producer would have a market cap of around $1.08 trillion, making it the world's biggest company. But only a mere 2.2% of its share capital is sold in the Chinese IPO and about 86% of its shares are still held by the state-owned parent.
Since very few shares are publicly traded spread -- scarcity that can drive up prices. If we were to value the company by tradeable shares the total value of PetroChina's publicly traded shares would be about $72.5 billion. In addition, PetroChina's Class A shares in China are trading at around 50 times this year's forecast earnings, compared with 20 times earnings for its Hong Kong-listed stock. Big oil companies average of 10 times forecast earnings internationally.
As I have said before, Exxon has higher reserves than PetroChina. Enough said.
Monday, November 05, 2007
Detour of the Thru Train
The HK market has been running ahead of itself when it was announced in mid August that the Bohai Branch (Tianjin City) of the Bank of China will be allowed to trade HK stocks for Chinese investors. We were anticipating that all of China can invest in HK stocks either thru the BOC or some other bank as we had expected that other banks will be allowed into the scheme. The announcement put paid to that as it was originally set up as an "experiment" in Tianjin only. The Chinese authorities got cold feet after seeing the response. They were afraid that all chinese investors will go to HK and the China stock market will fall. Stocks that are listed inbothe HK and china, trade at a 60% premium in China.
There is also some turf wars as the tianjin experiemnt was announced by the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission got very upset and warned everyone that it could bring the chinese market down. Of course no one wanted to be the one responsible for causing the collapse of the chinese market and so everyone backed off. The end result may be the collapse of the HK market.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6620.10 - 1.58%
Bombay Sensex* 19590.78 - 1.93%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28942.32 - 5.01%
Japan Nikkei 16268.92 - 1.50%
Shanghai Composite 5634.45 - 2.48%
Singapore STI 3670.18 - 1.21%
South Korea Composite 2015.76 - 0.18%
Taiwan Weighted 9308.60 + 0.38%
*Late trading
There is also some turf wars as the tianjin experiemnt was announced by the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission got very upset and warned everyone that it could bring the chinese market down. Of course no one wanted to be the one responsible for causing the collapse of the chinese market and so everyone backed off. The end result may be the collapse of the HK market.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6620.10 - 1.58%
Bombay Sensex* 19590.78 - 1.93%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28942.32 - 5.01%
Japan Nikkei 16268.92 - 1.50%
Shanghai Composite 5634.45 - 2.48%
Singapore STI 3670.18 - 1.21%
South Korea Composite 2015.76 - 0.18%
Taiwan Weighted 9308.60 + 0.38%
*Late trading
Friday, November 02, 2007
Citigroup Worries the Street
The Dow industrials closed down 362.14, or 2.6%, at 13567.87, slammed by fresh credit worries a day after the Fed rate cut. The financial sector led the selloff, with Citigroup down nearly 7% and J.P. Morgan and AIG each off 6%. Exxon Mobil's shares slid 3% after its below-forecast earnings. The Nasdaq ended the day 2.25% lower, and the S&P fell 2.6%, its worst day since early August. Oil fell more than $1 a barrel.
In spite of HK banks cutting interest rate, the HK market followed the US by dropping 1,024 points to 30,468 just managing to hold on above 30,000. Turnover was not particularly high at HK$154 billion.
Asian markets fell sharply, as investors digested fresh evidence of a weakening U.S. economy and the prospect that they can't count on further support from the Federal Reserve.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6726.70 - 1.85%
Bombay Sensex* 19960.68 + 1.20%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 30468.34 - 3.25%
Japan Nikkei 16517.48 - 2.09%
Shanghai Composite 5777.80 - 2.31%
Singapore STI 3715.32 - 2.32%
South Korea Composite 2019.34 - 2.12%
Taiwan Weighted 9273.09 - 3.39%
*Intraday trade
In spite of HK banks cutting interest rate, the HK market followed the US by dropping 1,024 points to 30,468 just managing to hold on above 30,000. Turnover was not particularly high at HK$154 billion.
Asian markets fell sharply, as investors digested fresh evidence of a weakening U.S. economy and the prospect that they can't count on further support from the Federal Reserve.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6726.70 - 1.85%
Bombay Sensex* 19960.68 + 1.20%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 30468.34 - 3.25%
Japan Nikkei 16517.48 - 2.09%
Shanghai Composite 5777.80 - 2.31%
Singapore STI 3715.32 - 2.32%
South Korea Composite 2019.34 - 2.12%
Taiwan Weighted 9273.09 - 3.39%
*Intraday trade
Thursday, November 01, 2007
The Waiting Game
The HK market opened fairly strong but eventually fell back. The hope of a 50 basis point cut was over optimistic. At the end of the trading day the HSI rose 140 to 31,492.
Will the HKAB follow through on rate the cut? It seems almost certain that they will. Yesterday, the HKMA injected HK$7.8 billion to mop up excess US$ as too much liquidity was flowing in to HK. With the US$ weakening, and the RMB expected to increase at the rate of at least 2% p.a. we are seeing a replay of using the HK stock market as a proxy for the currency (remember the hedge funds attack on the HK$ in 1998?) except this time it is the reverse. Since foreign investors cannot buy RMB or A-shares on the Mainland, they are opting to buy H-shares (Chinese companies listed in HK)as a proxy for the RMB since their assets and income streams are in RMB.
Market Indicies
Australia All Ordinaries 6853.60 + 1.10%
Bombay Sensex* 19724.35 - 0.57%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 31492.88 + 0.45%
Japan Nikkei 16870.40 + 0.79%
Shanghai Composite 5914.28 - 0.68%
Singapore STI 3803.56 - 0.06%
South Korea Composite 2063.14 - 0.08%
Taiwan Weighted 9598.23 - 1.17%
*Late trading
Will the HKAB follow through on rate the cut? It seems almost certain that they will. Yesterday, the HKMA injected HK$7.8 billion to mop up excess US$ as too much liquidity was flowing in to HK. With the US$ weakening, and the RMB expected to increase at the rate of at least 2% p.a. we are seeing a replay of using the HK stock market as a proxy for the currency (remember the hedge funds attack on the HK$ in 1998?) except this time it is the reverse. Since foreign investors cannot buy RMB or A-shares on the Mainland, they are opting to buy H-shares (Chinese companies listed in HK)as a proxy for the RMB since their assets and income streams are in RMB.
Market Indicies
Australia All Ordinaries 6853.60 + 1.10%
Bombay Sensex* 19724.35 - 0.57%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 31492.88 + 0.45%
Japan Nikkei 16870.40 + 0.79%
Shanghai Composite 5914.28 - 0.68%
Singapore STI 3803.56 - 0.06%
South Korea Composite 2063.14 - 0.08%
Taiwan Weighted 9598.23 - 1.17%
*Late trading
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Greenspan Redoubt! Irrational Exuberance?
The HK market consolidated in advance of the Fed meeting dropping 285 to 31,352. There were hopes that the Fed would cut 50 basis points but that proved to be overly optimistic. In any event, the Fed cut was 0.25% to 4.5%, and discount was cut to 5%. The US marklet softened initially but came back with 137 point rise.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6779.10 + 0.10%
Bombay Sensex* 19837.99 + 0.28%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 31352.58 - 0.90%
Japan Nikkei 16737.63 + 0.52%
Shanghai Composite 5954.76 + 0.98%
Singapore STI 3805.70 + 0.19%
South Korea Composite 2064.85 + 0.61%
Taiwan Weighted 9711.37 - 0.48%
*Late trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6779.10 + 0.10%
Bombay Sensex* 19837.99 + 0.28%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 31352.58 - 0.90%
Japan Nikkei 16737.63 + 0.52%
Shanghai Composite 5954.76 + 0.98%
Singapore STI 3805.70 + 0.19%
South Korea Composite 2064.85 + 0.61%
Taiwan Weighted 9711.37 - 0.48%
*Late trading
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
HK New High!
HK closed on a new high, again! And this time, the property stocks suffered a sell off in the afternoon on fears of fund raising via placements (SHK Properties placed HK$11 billion yesterday after the market close). HK and Shanghai were the only 2 markets in Asia to close higher.
The Chinese financials did very well again today, especially China Construction Bank. The word on the street is we are looking at HK$10.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6772.50 - 0.52%
Bombay Sensex* 19783.51 - 0.97%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 31638.22 + 0.16%
Japan Nikkei 16651.01 - 0.28%
Shanghai Composite 5897.19 + 2.60%
Singapore STI 3798.45 - 0.56%
South Korea Composite 2052.37 - 0.51%
Taiwan Weighted 9757.93 - 0.52%
*Late trading
The Chinese financials did very well again today, especially China Construction Bank. The word on the street is we are looking at HK$10.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6772.50 - 0.52%
Bombay Sensex* 19783.51 - 0.97%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 31638.22 + 0.16%
Japan Nikkei 16651.01 - 0.28%
Shanghai Composite 5897.19 + 2.60%
Singapore STI 3798.45 - 0.56%
South Korea Composite 2052.37 - 0.51%
Taiwan Weighted 9757.93 - 0.52%
*Late trading
Monday, October 29, 2007
HS Index up 1,181!
The HK market set another new high today rising 1,181 points (3.89%) to close at 31,586 on turnover of HK$178 billion. Shanghai rose 165 (2.83%) to close at 6,034. Shares throughout the region rose on the back of a 134 points rise in the DJIA last Friday and Nikkei's increase of 192 today.
In HK the property stocks led the advance on expectations that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates further with some expecting a 50 basis point cut.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6808.20 + 1.37%
Bombay Sensex* 19977.67 + 3.82%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 31586.90 + 3.89%
Japan Nikkei 16698.08 + 1.17%
Shanghai Composite 5747.99 + 2.83%
Singapore STI 3819.78 + 1.28%
South Korea Composite 2062.92 + 1.72%
Taiwan Weighted 9809.88 + 1.85%
*Late trading
In HK the property stocks led the advance on expectations that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates further with some expecting a 50 basis point cut.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6808.20 + 1.37%
Bombay Sensex* 19977.67 + 3.82%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 31586.90 + 3.89%
Japan Nikkei 16698.08 + 1.17%
Shanghai Composite 5747.99 + 2.83%
Singapore STI 3819.78 + 1.28%
South Korea Composite 2062.92 + 1.72%
Taiwan Weighted 9809.88 + 1.85%
*Late trading
Sunday, October 28, 2007
ICBC = I Can Buy Chinese (But Carefully!)
At the 12th Asia Securities Forum in Cebu, Philippines in March this year, I gave a presentation on the HK Securities Market which covered the listing of Chinese companies. At that time, I out up a slide that says ICBC (not Industrial and Commercial Bank of China but I Can Buy Chinese) as my prediction of where the market was going.
Since then of course, the HSI has hit a historical high of 30,400 moving up in leaps and bounds but still lagging the Shanghai market. Let there be no misunderatnding. HK is the proxy market for China. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are closed to foreigners except through QFII (Qualified Foreing Institutional Investors programme) which has a tiny US$10 billion quota shared by 50 institutions (the recent turnover in HK is between US$15-20 billion per day with a historical high of US$25 billion).
If you buy the China Story then you have to buy in HK. About 60% of the market value and 75% of the daily turnover are in Chinese stocks. The Gulf States' national budgets were based on US$35 per barrel. Now that oil is US$85, where is all that excess cash going? Certainly not to the US. Of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) China has the most compelling story and the most advanced market through it's proxy in HK. When I visited ADIA (Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the earliest and biggest Middle Eastern government investment fund) early this year, I was surprised to see Chinese nationals sitting across the table. They were hired by ADIA out of the China to research Chinese stocks.
Having said all that, I am always asked what companies to buy. My answer has always been the Chinese financials. Don't get me wrong, they are probably not the hottest thing around but in my mind they are the safest. What other in dustry has regulators sitting on top to ensure that things do not go badly wrong?
I cannot say the same for Chinese resource companies.
Recently, Chinese resource companies have been bid sky high. I am not convinced that they are worth the valuations. The market is huge, that much I agree. But resource companies are valued on the basis of their reserves and the price of their products. On the basis of reserves, the Chinese resource comapnies are valued at double their western counterparts. Do we expect their existing reserves or the prices to suddenly double?
Warren Buffett recently sold Berkshire Hathaway's 1.3% stake in PetroChina (#00857), China's largest oil company (an the largest company in China on market value). At about US$440 billion, it is the world's No. 2 company based on market value, behind ExxonMobil's $508 billion valuation. PetroChina trades for more than 20 times estimated 2007 profits, or twice its historic price/earnings multiple (Exxon's P/E is 13x and other Western oil companies such as Chevron and ConocoPhillips trade at around 10x). Berkshire bought its stake four years ago for less than US$500 million, and may have made as much as US$4 billion on the sale.
Although huge valuation gaps between Chinese and U.S. companies exist outside the resource sector, I am more relaxed because the pebetration of financial products is miniscule. China Life Insurance (LFC) has a market value of $245 billion, five times that of MetLife or Prudential Financial.
However, we cannot apply the same arguments to resource companies in China because oil and coal are fungible international commodities. Also, it is difficult for Chinese resource companies to buyout Western resource companies because of politics. US Congressional opposition frustrated an attempted takeover of Unocal by China's state-owned oil company in 2005; Unocal later was sold to Chevron.
The key to high stock-market values in China is that ordinary Chinese investors have little choice because of capital restrictions on investing overseas and the scarcity value created by the thin floats in many big Chinese companies. PetroChina, now 88%-owned by the Chinese government, will sell Chinese investors US$9 billion of Class A shares to be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. But the government's stake will slip only to 86%. Until now, PetroChina's shares have traded only in Hong Kong and as ADRs on the New York Stock Exchange. If all the company's shares were freely held, PetroChina would not command such a high valuation.
Since Chinese investors cannot buy Western stocks, comparison between PetroChina and Exxon is only useful for Western investors who can buy both. PetroChina is listed in HK and trades at more reasonable value precisely because HK is an open market with no capital or investors restrictions.
The only thing going for PetroChina is that its profits are depressed by price controls in the Chinese market for gasoline, other oil products and natural gas. The company gets about $3 per thousand cubic feet of natural gas, half of what Exxon nets. The gradual lifting of price controls in China will boost PetroChina's refining and natural-gas profits but prices will have to double before PetroChina and Exxon trades at similar PE's.
St. Louis-based Peabody Energy, the world's largest private-sector coal producer, trades at 30 times earnings while China Shenhua trades at 60x. China's largest coal company, China Shenhua Energy (#01088), is valued at $200 billion. When China Shenhua was listed in Shanghai earlier this month, its share price doubled in value. It since has risen to RMB 77 per share. China Shenhua, which already was listed in Hong Kong, now has a market value of about $190 billion, more than 10 times Peabody's value. Yet its annual production and reserves are less than Peabody's. But China Shenhua gets far higher prices for its coal than Peabody, and has power and railroad assets.
Since then of course, the HSI has hit a historical high of 30,400 moving up in leaps and bounds but still lagging the Shanghai market. Let there be no misunderatnding. HK is the proxy market for China. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are closed to foreigners except through QFII (Qualified Foreing Institutional Investors programme) which has a tiny US$10 billion quota shared by 50 institutions (the recent turnover in HK is between US$15-20 billion per day with a historical high of US$25 billion).
If you buy the China Story then you have to buy in HK. About 60% of the market value and 75% of the daily turnover are in Chinese stocks. The Gulf States' national budgets were based on US$35 per barrel. Now that oil is US$85, where is all that excess cash going? Certainly not to the US. Of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) China has the most compelling story and the most advanced market through it's proxy in HK. When I visited ADIA (Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the earliest and biggest Middle Eastern government investment fund) early this year, I was surprised to see Chinese nationals sitting across the table. They were hired by ADIA out of the China to research Chinese stocks.
Having said all that, I am always asked what companies to buy. My answer has always been the Chinese financials. Don't get me wrong, they are probably not the hottest thing around but in my mind they are the safest. What other in dustry has regulators sitting on top to ensure that things do not go badly wrong?
I cannot say the same for Chinese resource companies.
Recently, Chinese resource companies have been bid sky high. I am not convinced that they are worth the valuations. The market is huge, that much I agree. But resource companies are valued on the basis of their reserves and the price of their products. On the basis of reserves, the Chinese resource comapnies are valued at double their western counterparts. Do we expect their existing reserves or the prices to suddenly double?
Warren Buffett recently sold Berkshire Hathaway's 1.3% stake in PetroChina (#00857), China's largest oil company (an the largest company in China on market value). At about US$440 billion, it is the world's No. 2 company based on market value, behind ExxonMobil's $508 billion valuation. PetroChina trades for more than 20 times estimated 2007 profits, or twice its historic price/earnings multiple (Exxon's P/E is 13x and other Western oil companies such as Chevron and ConocoPhillips trade at around 10x). Berkshire bought its stake four years ago for less than US$500 million, and may have made as much as US$4 billion on the sale.
Although huge valuation gaps between Chinese and U.S. companies exist outside the resource sector, I am more relaxed because the pebetration of financial products is miniscule. China Life Insurance (LFC) has a market value of $245 billion, five times that of MetLife or Prudential Financial.
However, we cannot apply the same arguments to resource companies in China because oil and coal are fungible international commodities. Also, it is difficult for Chinese resource companies to buyout Western resource companies because of politics. US Congressional opposition frustrated an attempted takeover of Unocal by China's state-owned oil company in 2005; Unocal later was sold to Chevron.
The key to high stock-market values in China is that ordinary Chinese investors have little choice because of capital restrictions on investing overseas and the scarcity value created by the thin floats in many big Chinese companies. PetroChina, now 88%-owned by the Chinese government, will sell Chinese investors US$9 billion of Class A shares to be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. But the government's stake will slip only to 86%. Until now, PetroChina's shares have traded only in Hong Kong and as ADRs on the New York Stock Exchange. If all the company's shares were freely held, PetroChina would not command such a high valuation.
Since Chinese investors cannot buy Western stocks, comparison between PetroChina and Exxon is only useful for Western investors who can buy both. PetroChina is listed in HK and trades at more reasonable value precisely because HK is an open market with no capital or investors restrictions.
The only thing going for PetroChina is that its profits are depressed by price controls in the Chinese market for gasoline, other oil products and natural gas. The company gets about $3 per thousand cubic feet of natural gas, half of what Exxon nets. The gradual lifting of price controls in China will boost PetroChina's refining and natural-gas profits but prices will have to double before PetroChina and Exxon trades at similar PE's.
St. Louis-based Peabody Energy, the world's largest private-sector coal producer, trades at 30 times earnings while China Shenhua trades at 60x. China's largest coal company, China Shenhua Energy (#01088), is valued at $200 billion. When China Shenhua was listed in Shanghai earlier this month, its share price doubled in value. It since has risen to RMB 77 per share. China Shenhua, which already was listed in Hong Kong, now has a market value of about $190 billion, more than 10 times Peabody's value. Yet its annual production and reserves are less than Peabody's. But China Shenhua gets far higher prices for its coal than Peabody, and has power and railroad assets.
Friday, October 26, 2007
Hang Seng Index at historical high 30,405
Finally we broke through the 30,000 resistance level, and resoundingly so by rising 550 points to 30,405. The hope is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rate by 50 basis points because of the bad news coming out of the US.
The HK dollar moved to the string side of the peg against the US dollar because of the inflows of funds into HK. Most of this is destined for the stock market as a proxy for the RMB since the chinese currency is not convertible. The H shares have assets in RMB and earn RMB.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6716.40 + 1.08%
Bombay Sensex* 19243.17 + 2.52%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 30405.22 + 1.84%
Japan Nikkei 16505.63 + 1.36%
Shanghai Composite 5589.63 + 0.49%
Singapore STI 3766.82 + 1.61%
South Korea Composite 2028.06 + 2.60%
Taiwan Weighted 9631.51 + 0.66%
*Intraday trading
The HK dollar moved to the string side of the peg against the US dollar because of the inflows of funds into HK. Most of this is destined for the stock market as a proxy for the RMB since the chinese currency is not convertible. The H shares have assets in RMB and earn RMB.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6716.40 + 1.08%
Bombay Sensex* 19243.17 + 2.52%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 30405.22 + 1.84%
Japan Nikkei 16505.63 + 1.36%
Shanghai Composite 5589.63 + 0.49%
Singapore STI 3766.82 + 1.61%
South Korea Composite 2028.06 + 2.60%
Taiwan Weighted 9631.51 + 0.66%
*Intraday trading
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Reversal of Fortunes?
Hong Kong closed at a record high, but Shanghai plunged on interest-rate worries and concerns that the central government will clamp down on inflation.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6644.80 - 0.11%
Bombay Sensex* 18770.89 + 1.39%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 29854.49 + 1.78%
Japan Nikkei 16284.17 - 0.45%
Shanghai Composite 5562.39 - 4.80%
Singapore STI 3707.14 + 1.59%
South Korea Composite 1976.75 + 2.24%
Taiwan Weighted 9568.26 + 1.33%
*Intraday trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6644.80 - 0.11%
Bombay Sensex* 18770.89 + 1.39%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 29854.49 + 1.78%
Japan Nikkei 16284.17 - 0.45%
Shanghai Composite 5562.39 - 4.80%
Singapore STI 3707.14 + 1.59%
South Korea Composite 1976.75 + 2.24%
Taiwan Weighted 9568.26 + 1.33%
*Intraday trading
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
29,997: So near and yet so far.
The HK market opened strong on the back of a 109 point rise on the DJIA overnight. The HSI got within 29,997 before retreating from the pyschological barrier of 30,000 finishing in negative territory.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6652.10 - 0.38%
Bombay Sensex* 18602.52 + 0.59%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 29333.53 - 0.15%
Japan Nikkei 16358.39 - 0.56%
Shanghai Composite 5843.10 + 1.21%
Singapore STI 3666.28 - 0.79%
South Korea Composite 1933.36 - 0.75%
Taiwan Weighted 9442.62 - 0.63%
*Intraday trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6652.10 - 0.38%
Bombay Sensex* 18602.52 + 0.59%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 29333.53 - 0.15%
Japan Nikkei 16358.39 - 0.56%
Shanghai Composite 5843.10 + 1.21%
Singapore STI 3666.28 - 0.79%
South Korea Composite 1933.36 - 0.75%
Taiwan Weighted 9442.62 - 0.63%
*Intraday trading
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
HK UP 1,003
This is a market in transition. It can't decide whether it is too high or whether it is poised for further gains. After the correction yesterday the market was up 3.54% to finish at 29,376 virtually unchanged from Thursday last. Current month futures closed at 29,481 (a premium of over 104), and next month futures closed at 259,525 (a premium of 148).
Chinese financials staged a recovery. I must admit I am partial to the Chinese banks and insurance companies. They have regulators (CBRC and CIRC) sitting on top of them to make sure they don't go too far off track, and they can legitimately profit from the stock market rise. Just imagine buying into HSBC in 1971 at HK$4 and holding until now. Well, you can dream on or you can buy the Chinese banks.
Chinese financials staged a recovery. I must admit I am partial to the Chinese banks and insurance companies. They have regulators (CBRC and CIRC) sitting on top of them to make sure they don't go too far off track, and they can legitimately profit from the stock market rise. Just imagine buying into HSBC in 1971 at HK$4 and holding until now. Well, you can dream on or you can buy the Chinese banks.
Monday, October 22, 2007
HK Stocks Dropped 1,091 points
As expected the HK market followed the US down. However, the drop was actually less than expected being only 3.7%. Compared with 26 Ocotber 1987 when the market fell 45% when it re-opened after a 4 day clsosure, and 10% on 23 october 1997 this was literally a drop in the bucket.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6592.10 - 1.95%
Bombay Sensex* 17441.30 - 0.68%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28373.63 - 3.70%
Japan Nikkei 16438.47 - 2.24%
Shanghai Composite 5667.33 - 2.59%
Singapore STI 3642.64 - 2.81%
South Korea Composite 1903.81 - 3.36%
Taiwan Weighted 9360.63 - 2.61%
*Intraday trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6592.10 - 1.95%
Bombay Sensex* 17441.30 - 0.68%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28373.63 - 3.70%
Japan Nikkei 16438.47 - 2.24%
Shanghai Composite 5667.33 - 2.59%
Singapore STI 3642.64 - 2.81%
South Korea Composite 1903.81 - 3.36%
Taiwan Weighted 9360.63 - 2.61%
*Intraday trading
Saturday, October 20, 2007
October 19, 1997: Then and Now
Yesterday was the 20th anniversary of the Black Monday Crash of 19 October 1997. Right on cue the US market fell 366 points. Are we looking at a repeat of the crash. I think not.
There are some similarities but the differences are very significant.
1. On 19 October 1997, the market crashed 22.6% (508 points0 in 1 day. This time, the drop was only 2.6%.
2. Back then the average P/E was 22x and treasury bonds were yielding 10%. Now the average P/E is 18x and Treasuries are yielding only 5%.
3. In 1997, the US$ was under attack and in order to counteract rate rises by the Bundesbank (which was fighting inflation in Germany) the Federal reserve had to raise interest rates. Now, the Fed is cutting interest rates to offset the effects of the sub-prime mess. So are all the other central banks.
One final point, even if the market falls, remember that 18 months later, the market was back up to where it was before the crash. Sit tight.
HK market was closed for a holiday on Friday 19 October 2007. The Shanghai marker recovered its nerve somewhat when the CSRC denied that it was looking to arbitrage the HK and Shanghai prices for dual liosted stocks.
There are some similarities but the differences are very significant.
1. On 19 October 1997, the market crashed 22.6% (508 points0 in 1 day. This time, the drop was only 2.6%.
2. Back then the average P/E was 22x and treasury bonds were yielding 10%. Now the average P/E is 18x and Treasuries are yielding only 5%.
3. In 1997, the US$ was under attack and in order to counteract rate rises by the Bundesbank (which was fighting inflation in Germany) the Federal reserve had to raise interest rates. Now, the Fed is cutting interest rates to offset the effects of the sub-prime mess. So are all the other central banks.
One final point, even if the market falls, remember that 18 months later, the market was back up to where it was before the crash. Sit tight.
HK market was closed for a holiday on Friday 19 October 2007. The Shanghai marker recovered its nerve somewhat when the CSRC denied that it was looking to arbitrage the HK and Shanghai prices for dual liosted stocks.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Oil Prices Put Damper on Share Prices
HK was closed for a holiday.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6723.30 - 0.85%
Bombay Sensex* 17596.61 - 2.20%
Hong Kong Hang Seng** 29465.05 + 0.57%
Japan Nikkei 16814.37 - 1.71%
Shanghai Composite 5818.04 - 0.12%
Singapore STI 3747.98 - 1.62%
South Korea Composite 1970.10 - 1.75%
Taiwan Weighted 9611.72 - 0.26%
*Late trading
**Market closed for holiday
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6723.30 - 0.85%
Bombay Sensex* 17596.61 - 2.20%
Hong Kong Hang Seng** 29465.05 + 0.57%
Japan Nikkei 16814.37 - 1.71%
Shanghai Composite 5818.04 - 0.12%
Singapore STI 3747.98 - 1.62%
South Korea Composite 1970.10 - 1.75%
Taiwan Weighted 9611.72 - 0.26%
*Late trading
**Market closed for holiday
Thursday, October 18, 2007
The Big 30
HK breached the 30,000 level in intra-day trading on the back of reports that the CSRC is studying mechanisms to arbitrage the prices of stocks listed in bothe HK and Shanghai. Shanghai fell 3.5% on fears that the arbitrage will hit Shanghai prices as investors gravitate towards the HK market. The HSI touched 30,025 but closed lower at 29,465 when the CSRC said it was misquoted.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Climbing a Wall of Worry
The HK market opened down but closed up. There appears to be buying support at around 28,500. Yesterday, the story was the changing leadership. Today, there were concerns that the Chinese economy is running too hot.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6696.10 - 0.23%
Bombay Sensex 18715.82 - 1.80%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 29298.71 + 1.19%
Japan Nikkei 16955.31 - 1.07%
Shanghai Composite 6036.28 - 0.92%
Singapore STI 3839.73 + 0.76%
South Korea Composite 1983.94 - 1.09%
Taiwan Weighted 9562.16 - 0.32%
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6696.10 - 0.23%
Bombay Sensex 18715.82 - 1.80%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 29298.71 + 1.19%
Japan Nikkei 16955.31 - 1.07%
Shanghai Composite 6036.28 - 0.92%
Singapore STI 3839.73 + 0.76%
South Korea Composite 1983.94 - 1.09%
Taiwan Weighted 9562.16 - 0.32%
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
17th Party Congress
Yesterday, the market was up over 700 points as the 17th Communist Party Congress got under way. Today it was down because there is concern that the new leadership may implement measures to cool the economy and therefore "burst the bubble". What new leadership?
All major decisions are taken at the premier and vice premier level. There may be changes at the head of various departments, etc. but the working level will also remain the same. So, there will be very little rocking of the boat by the "new brooms". The concept of a "new broom" is a very westernised. In the West, new leaders typically fought their way to the top, and are anxious to "clean house" so that they start anew. In the East, one gets to the top by being a team player, and we can expect the major directions to remain unchanged as new leadsers are picked to carry on the work of the old.
Most Asian markets fell on renewed credit-crunch jitters and profit-taking, but Shanghai shares bucked the trend, closing at another record high. Yesterday, Shanghai topped 6,000 for the first time rising 5 times over 2 years. Many have compared Shanghai to Taiwan in the early 90's which also rose 5 times in 18 months. However, we must remember that taiwan continued to double over the next 2 years before it came crashing down.
HSBC took a pounding because of Citi's write downs, and this brought all the financials down with it, including the Mainland ones.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6692.00 - 0.70%
Bombay Sensex* 19081.23 + 0.12%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28954.55 - 1.98%
Japan Nikkei 17137.92 - 1.27%
Shanghai Composite 6092.05 + 1.03%
Singapore STI 3810.72 - 1.33%
South Korea Composite 2005.76 - 1.46%
Taiwan Weighted 9592.47 + 0.78%
*Intraday trading
All major decisions are taken at the premier and vice premier level. There may be changes at the head of various departments, etc. but the working level will also remain the same. So, there will be very little rocking of the boat by the "new brooms". The concept of a "new broom" is a very westernised. In the West, new leaders typically fought their way to the top, and are anxious to "clean house" so that they start anew. In the East, one gets to the top by being a team player, and we can expect the major directions to remain unchanged as new leadsers are picked to carry on the work of the old.
Most Asian markets fell on renewed credit-crunch jitters and profit-taking, but Shanghai shares bucked the trend, closing at another record high. Yesterday, Shanghai topped 6,000 for the first time rising 5 times over 2 years. Many have compared Shanghai to Taiwan in the early 90's which also rose 5 times in 18 months. However, we must remember that taiwan continued to double over the next 2 years before it came crashing down.
HSBC took a pounding because of Citi's write downs, and this brought all the financials down with it, including the Mainland ones.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6692.00 - 0.70%
Bombay Sensex* 19081.23 + 0.12%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28954.55 - 1.98%
Japan Nikkei 17137.92 - 1.27%
Shanghai Composite 6092.05 + 1.03%
Singapore STI 3810.72 - 1.33%
South Korea Composite 2005.76 - 1.46%
Taiwan Weighted 9592.47 + 0.78%
*Intraday trading
Monday, October 15, 2007
Hong Kong: China's Proxy Market
Asian indexes mostly rose, with oil and blue-chip gains driving Chinese markets to record closes while technology gains boosted Tokyo shares ahead of earnings reports. HK rose 702 to close at 29,540 which is yet another new high.
The HK market is being re-rated. Back in 1997, we had 6 million of population and 800,000 investors. Now with the announced QDII, through train, and other investors potentially coming from the Mainland, the market is looking very different from a domestic demand standpoint. Then we need to add the demand from overseas investors who is looking at HK as a proxy market for the Mainland because over 60% of the HK market capitalisationa dn over 70% of the daily turnover are in Maionland stocks.
The main investors are from the Middle-East. When I visited Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi early this year, I was told by their government investment authories that their national budget is based on US$35 per barrel. With oil now at US$85 per barrel, the excess need to be invested somewhere. Of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) HK is the biggest market and has the best regulatory and corporate governance environment.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6751.60 - 0.13%
Bombay Sensex* 19085.12 + 3.60%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 29540.78 + 2.44%
Japan Nikkei 17358.15 + 0.16%
Shanghai Composite 6030.08 + 2.15%
Singapore STI 3862.02 + 0.12%
South Korea Composite 2035.39 + 0.44%
Taiwan Weighted 9518.45 + 0.23%
*Intraday trading
The HK market is being re-rated. Back in 1997, we had 6 million of population and 800,000 investors. Now with the announced QDII, through train, and other investors potentially coming from the Mainland, the market is looking very different from a domestic demand standpoint. Then we need to add the demand from overseas investors who is looking at HK as a proxy market for the Mainland because over 60% of the HK market capitalisationa dn over 70% of the daily turnover are in Maionland stocks.
The main investors are from the Middle-East. When I visited Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi early this year, I was told by their government investment authories that their national budget is based on US$35 per barrel. With oil now at US$85 per barrel, the excess need to be invested somewhere. Of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) HK is the biggest market and has the best regulatory and corporate governance environment.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6751.60 - 0.13%
Bombay Sensex* 19085.12 + 3.60%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 29540.78 + 2.44%
Japan Nikkei 17358.15 + 0.16%
Shanghai Composite 6030.08 + 2.15%
Singapore STI 3862.02 + 0.12%
South Korea Composite 2035.39 + 0.44%
Taiwan Weighted 9518.45 + 0.23%
*Intraday trading
Friday, October 12, 2007
Xinxin Mining up 119%
Asian indexes declined, as profit taking on financial, real-estate and exporter shares following Wall Street's overnight decline reversed a week of record highs. HK opened weak and was down over 600 points at one stage. However, bargain hunting crawled back some of the losses to close down 294 at 28,838.
The one bright spot was the newly listed share which closed at $14.24 (high $14.90)on the IPO price of $6.50.
Top 5 IPO debuts in 2007
119.08%: Xinxing Mining 12 Oct 2007
97.74%: China High Speed Transmission Equipment 4 Jul 2007
81.76%: Tiangong International 26 Jul 2007
78.95: Emperor capital 24 Apr 2007
77.45%: Hildili Industry 21 Sep 2007
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6760.10 - 0.29%
Bombay Sensex* 18377.02 - 2.30%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28838.37 - 1.01%
Japan Nikkei 17331.17 - 0.73%
Shanghai Composite 5903.26 - 0.17%
Singapore STI 3857.25 - 0.48%
South Korea Composite 2026.44 - 1.57%
Taiwan Weighted 9496.47 - 2.07%
*Intraday Trading
The one bright spot was the newly listed share which closed at $14.24 (high $14.90)on the IPO price of $6.50.
Top 5 IPO debuts in 2007
119.08%: Xinxing Mining 12 Oct 2007
97.74%: China High Speed Transmission Equipment 4 Jul 2007
81.76%: Tiangong International 26 Jul 2007
78.95: Emperor capital 24 Apr 2007
77.45%: Hildili Industry 21 Sep 2007
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6760.10 - 0.29%
Bombay Sensex* 18377.02 - 2.30%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28838.37 - 1.01%
Japan Nikkei 17331.17 - 0.73%
Shanghai Composite 5903.26 - 0.17%
Singapore STI 3857.25 - 0.48%
South Korea Composite 2026.44 - 1.57%
Taiwan Weighted 9496.47 - 2.07%
*Intraday Trading
Thursday, October 11, 2007
HS Index at 29,000
The HK market rose 562 points to close at a record 29,133.
The following statistics are made available by the HKEx:
Securities market
- The Hang Seng Index closed at a record high of 29133.02 today, up 563.69 points.
- Today's securities market turnover value was $179,409 million, the second largest in history.
- Today's closing market capitalisation was a new high of $21,512 billion. The previous trading day's (10 October 2007) closing market capitalisation was $21,061 billion.
The following statistics are made available by the HKEx:
Securities market
- The Hang Seng Index closed at a record high of 29133.02 today, up 563.69 points.
- Today's securities market turnover value was $179,409 million, the second largest in history.
- Today's closing market capitalisation was a new high of $21,512 billion. The previous trading day's (10 October 2007) closing market capitalisation was $21,061 billion.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
2007-08 Policy Address
In his Policy Address, the Chief Executive of the HKSAR outlined his plans for HK. From the financial standpoint the most important being a reduction in tax rates, and the building of massive infrastructure projects to facilitate the integration with the Mainland. The following is an extract.
10 Major Infrastructure Projects for Economic Growth
“Infrastructure development can bring about huge economic benefits... the value added would be more than $100 billion annually. In addition, some 250 000 additional jobs would be created.”
South Island Line: Construction to start in 2011
The Sha Tin to Central Link: Will connect the Northeast New Territories and Hong Kong Island via East Kowloon. Construction to start in 2010
The Tuen Mun Western Bypass and Tuen Mun-Chek Lap Kok Link: Upon completion in 2016, will link Deep Bay in Shenzhen, the Northwest New Territories and Hong Kong International Airport
The Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link: Construction of high-speed rail link between West Kowloon and Guangzhou will start in 2009
Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge: Aim to complete financial arrangements in the near future
Hong Kong-Shenzhen Airport Co-operation: Will study the feasibility of a rail connection between Hong Kong International Airport and Shenzhen Airport
Hong Kong-Shenzhen Joint Development of the Lok Ma Chau Loop: Will work with the Shenzhen authorities to develop the Lok Ma Chau Loop
West Kowloon Cultural District: Aim to enact legislation in mid-2008 so West Kowloon Cultural District Authority can be established as soon as possible
Kai Tak Development Plan: First cruise terminal berth expected to be operational in 2012
New Development Areas (NDAs): Will plan for NDAs to provide quality living space in the northern New Territories
Asian shares advanced following gains on Wall Street, with Shanghai closing at a record high while Hong Kong rose on banking-sector strength.
The HK stock market must have liked the policy direction as it rose to close at 28,569 with the Chinese financials leading the way.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6744.60 + 0.85%
Bombay Sensex* 18658.25 + 2.07%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28569.33 + 1.21%
Japan Nikkei 17177.89 + 0.10%
Shanghai Composite 5771.46 + 0.97%
Singapore STI 3814.45 - 1.33%
South Korea Composite 2041.12 + 1.34%
Taiwan Weighted** 9639.83 - 0.80%
*Intraday trading
**Market closed for holiday
10 Major Infrastructure Projects for Economic Growth
“Infrastructure development can bring about huge economic benefits... the value added would be more than $100 billion annually. In addition, some 250 000 additional jobs would be created.”
South Island Line: Construction to start in 2011
The Sha Tin to Central Link: Will connect the Northeast New Territories and Hong Kong Island via East Kowloon. Construction to start in 2010
The Tuen Mun Western Bypass and Tuen Mun-Chek Lap Kok Link: Upon completion in 2016, will link Deep Bay in Shenzhen, the Northwest New Territories and Hong Kong International Airport
The Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link: Construction of high-speed rail link between West Kowloon and Guangzhou will start in 2009
Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge: Aim to complete financial arrangements in the near future
Hong Kong-Shenzhen Airport Co-operation: Will study the feasibility of a rail connection between Hong Kong International Airport and Shenzhen Airport
Hong Kong-Shenzhen Joint Development of the Lok Ma Chau Loop: Will work with the Shenzhen authorities to develop the Lok Ma Chau Loop
West Kowloon Cultural District: Aim to enact legislation in mid-2008 so West Kowloon Cultural District Authority can be established as soon as possible
Kai Tak Development Plan: First cruise terminal berth expected to be operational in 2012
New Development Areas (NDAs): Will plan for NDAs to provide quality living space in the northern New Territories
Asian shares advanced following gains on Wall Street, with Shanghai closing at a record high while Hong Kong rose on banking-sector strength.
The HK stock market must have liked the policy direction as it rose to close at 28,569 with the Chinese financials leading the way.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6744.60 + 0.85%
Bombay Sensex* 18658.25 + 2.07%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28569.33 + 1.21%
Japan Nikkei 17177.89 + 0.10%
Shanghai Composite 5771.46 + 0.97%
Singapore STI 3814.45 - 1.33%
South Korea Composite 2041.12 + 1.34%
Taiwan Weighted** 9639.83 - 0.80%
*Intraday trading
**Market closed for holiday
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Another Roller Coaster Day
Asian shares ended higher, as Japanese investors showed renewed confidence, while strong trading debuts from several companies propelled shares in Hong Kong and Shanghai.
HK opened up then down. When I left to go to a meeting it was down over 200. I was still at a meeting when the market closed up 457 to close at 28,228 on HK$129 billion turnover. Some were disappointed with the turnover, but we must remember that last year the daily average was only HK$30 billion, and in the first 6 months of this year it was only HK$60 billion. So HK$120 billion days are nothing to sneeze at.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6687.70 + 0.31%
Bombay Sensex* 18174.74 + 4.30%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28228.04 + 1.65%
Japan Nikkei 17159.90 + 0.56%
Shanghai Composite 5715.89 + 0.41%
Singapore STI 3865.75 + 1.19%
South Korea Composite 2014.13 + 0.07%
Taiwan Weighted 9639.83 - 0.80%
*Intraday trading
HK opened up then down. When I left to go to a meeting it was down over 200. I was still at a meeting when the market closed up 457 to close at 28,228 on HK$129 billion turnover. Some were disappointed with the turnover, but we must remember that last year the daily average was only HK$30 billion, and in the first 6 months of this year it was only HK$60 billion. So HK$120 billion days are nothing to sneeze at.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6687.70 + 0.31%
Bombay Sensex* 18174.74 + 4.30%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28228.04 + 1.65%
Japan Nikkei 17159.90 + 0.56%
Shanghai Composite 5715.89 + 0.41%
Singapore STI 3865.75 + 1.19%
South Korea Composite 2014.13 + 0.07%
Taiwan Weighted 9639.83 - 0.80%
*Intraday trading
Monday, October 08, 2007
HK: International Financial Centre?
HK wants to be an international financial centre. In many ways, it already is. We have 70 of the world's top 100 banks operating here. Over 200 of the 280 banks operating in HK are foreign registered. Of the US$ 560 billion in deposits, over half is in foreign currencies. Most of the world's top investment banks are already here. And the list goes on.
But in terms of the geographical spread of our listed companies, we are still tied to China which accounts of over 60% of our market capitalisation, 70% of our daily trading volume, and 90% of our IPO's. So where did we go wrong?
Actually, we did nothing wrong. We are just a century or two too late. Over 100 years ago, London was already floating China railway bonds! When New York outgrew London because of the size of the US domestic economy (something we are already seeing with Shanghai and China) London became bankers to the world. New York was content as it was too insular and too busy. HK must not make this mistake.
We must make ourselves attractive to issuers in other markets and follow London's example. NY is wise to the game. It has already spent millions of dollars commissioning studies of its competitiveness. And so has London, after all it invented the term international financial centre. So it isn't going to be easy this time around. They didn't like losing the Chinese IPO market and sure as hell would not want anyone poaching in their backyard.
We have 3 problems:
1. All the major investment houses are either US or UK based.
They have divided up the world among their subsidiaries into The Americas, Europe Africa and the Middle East, and Asia. It would take a very brave banker from one of the Asian subsidiaries to poach on something in the Europe sphere of influence. And that is why so many Russian companies (over 200) are listed in London. The bankers in Moscow are all sent from the UK. That, and the loose listing regime of AIM (more on that later).
2. Bankers sent out here are looking to their year end bonuses and are reluctant to invest their time in developing other markets.
And who can blame them, after all they have quota's and targets to meet. And our local investment banks are too small to take on market development work.
3. Our listing regime does not make it easy to list in HK.
Our market grew out of a purely domestic (HK) need, and protection of the small retail investors figure very high in terms of priorities. However, retail investors now account for less and less of the market share but the legislation is still skewed towards their protection. Fund managers tell us that the rule of law is of paramount importance, and it is. Especially, after a market blow up when every man and his dog is "asking where are the regulators?". But in the overall scheme of things fund managers will go where there is a profit to be made. You don't keep your job for long if you refuse to go into a market because of a lack of regulations while everyone is making a bundle there.
Dubai International Financial Exchange has spent millions building an excellent legal and regulatory infrastructure but only has 3 listings in 3 years to show for it. Ultimately, a market has to have a balance of regulation and openess. That is where AIM has done extremely well.
So how to solve these problems? The HK Government has to take the lead in longer term market development. This is not unfamiliar territory. HK has an excellent organisation in the Trade development Council. The TDC was set up to promote HK products made by small and medium enterprises too small to market them effectively overseas. It has trade offices all over the world promoting HK products (these days they are mostly made in Shenzhen but designed and sold by HK firms), organising trade shows, and bringing buyers to HK to meet with local companies.
Recently, it has made a very far sighted move into promoting HK services (including financial services) as well as the more traditional products. I have been on numerous trade missions with them promoting HK as a listing destination including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Kazakhstan, Taiwan, Moscow and St. Petersburg not to mention the promotions into China. It has done a lot but much remains to be done.
We need to have financial services attachees or specialists in some of the TDC offices abroad who understand what HK can do and can sniff out opportunities for HK financial services firms e.g. fund raising for toll roads in Vietnam, golf courses in St. Petersburg, joint venture banks in Moscow, etc. We have done all this before in China. We have the expertise. We can do it again. But, we need to know that there are opportunities.
Then, we need financial specialists on the HK staff to co-ordinate the efforts on this side. And finally, we need HK government support to undertake some of these projects similar to Exim banks facilities and guaranties. If the US/UK banks are not interested, we may be able to bring in the Chinese banks. After all, they are already making acquisitions and forays abroad.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coming back down to earth, let's look at how the Asian markets fared.
Most shares made strong gains across the Asian-Pacific region. Hong Kong closed slightly lower on profit-taking pressure after tracking record gains in Shanghai as financial firms played catch-up following a week-long holiday.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6667.20 + 0.75%
Bombay Sensex* 17372.79 - 2.30%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27770.29 - 0.22%
Shanghai Composite 5692.75 + 2.53%
Singapore STI 3820.31 - 0.06%
South Korea Composite 2012.82 + 0.84%
Taiwan Weighted 9717.17 + 1.04%
*Intraday trading
But in terms of the geographical spread of our listed companies, we are still tied to China which accounts of over 60% of our market capitalisation, 70% of our daily trading volume, and 90% of our IPO's. So where did we go wrong?
Actually, we did nothing wrong. We are just a century or two too late. Over 100 years ago, London was already floating China railway bonds! When New York outgrew London because of the size of the US domestic economy (something we are already seeing with Shanghai and China) London became bankers to the world. New York was content as it was too insular and too busy. HK must not make this mistake.
We must make ourselves attractive to issuers in other markets and follow London's example. NY is wise to the game. It has already spent millions of dollars commissioning studies of its competitiveness. And so has London, after all it invented the term international financial centre. So it isn't going to be easy this time around. They didn't like losing the Chinese IPO market and sure as hell would not want anyone poaching in their backyard.
We have 3 problems:
1. All the major investment houses are either US or UK based.
They have divided up the world among their subsidiaries into The Americas, Europe Africa and the Middle East, and Asia. It would take a very brave banker from one of the Asian subsidiaries to poach on something in the Europe sphere of influence. And that is why so many Russian companies (over 200) are listed in London. The bankers in Moscow are all sent from the UK. That, and the loose listing regime of AIM (more on that later).
2. Bankers sent out here are looking to their year end bonuses and are reluctant to invest their time in developing other markets.
And who can blame them, after all they have quota's and targets to meet. And our local investment banks are too small to take on market development work.
3. Our listing regime does not make it easy to list in HK.
Our market grew out of a purely domestic (HK) need, and protection of the small retail investors figure very high in terms of priorities. However, retail investors now account for less and less of the market share but the legislation is still skewed towards their protection. Fund managers tell us that the rule of law is of paramount importance, and it is. Especially, after a market blow up when every man and his dog is "asking where are the regulators?". But in the overall scheme of things fund managers will go where there is a profit to be made. You don't keep your job for long if you refuse to go into a market because of a lack of regulations while everyone is making a bundle there.
Dubai International Financial Exchange has spent millions building an excellent legal and regulatory infrastructure but only has 3 listings in 3 years to show for it. Ultimately, a market has to have a balance of regulation and openess. That is where AIM has done extremely well.
So how to solve these problems? The HK Government has to take the lead in longer term market development. This is not unfamiliar territory. HK has an excellent organisation in the Trade development Council. The TDC was set up to promote HK products made by small and medium enterprises too small to market them effectively overseas. It has trade offices all over the world promoting HK products (these days they are mostly made in Shenzhen but designed and sold by HK firms), organising trade shows, and bringing buyers to HK to meet with local companies.
Recently, it has made a very far sighted move into promoting HK services (including financial services) as well as the more traditional products. I have been on numerous trade missions with them promoting HK as a listing destination including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Kazakhstan, Taiwan, Moscow and St. Petersburg not to mention the promotions into China. It has done a lot but much remains to be done.
We need to have financial services attachees or specialists in some of the TDC offices abroad who understand what HK can do and can sniff out opportunities for HK financial services firms e.g. fund raising for toll roads in Vietnam, golf courses in St. Petersburg, joint venture banks in Moscow, etc. We have done all this before in China. We have the expertise. We can do it again. But, we need to know that there are opportunities.
Then, we need financial specialists on the HK staff to co-ordinate the efforts on this side. And finally, we need HK government support to undertake some of these projects similar to Exim banks facilities and guaranties. If the US/UK banks are not interested, we may be able to bring in the Chinese banks. After all, they are already making acquisitions and forays abroad.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coming back down to earth, let's look at how the Asian markets fared.
Most shares made strong gains across the Asian-Pacific region. Hong Kong closed slightly lower on profit-taking pressure after tracking record gains in Shanghai as financial firms played catch-up following a week-long holiday.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6667.20 + 0.75%
Bombay Sensex* 17372.79 - 2.30%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27770.29 - 0.22%
Shanghai Composite 5692.75 + 2.53%
Singapore STI 3820.31 - 0.06%
South Korea Composite 2012.82 + 0.84%
Taiwan Weighted 9717.17 + 1.04%
*Intraday trading
Friday, October 05, 2007
Correction? What Correction?
Asian markets were mixed, with Japanese shares down ahead of a three-day weekend, while Hong Kong rebounded on bargain hunting following a two-session slump. Stocks in HKL resume the rally with 3.18% bounce. The benchmark Hang Seng Index rose 857 points to close at 27,831 which is still 1,000 points off the intra day high on Wednesday.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6617.30 + 0.57%
Bombay Sensex* 17732.85 - 0.25%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27831.52 + 3.18%
Japan Nikkei 17065.04 - 0.16%
Singapore STI 3822.62 + 1.03%
South Korea Composite 1996.03 - 0.38%
Taiwan Weighted 9617.26 - 0.11%
*Intraday trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6617.30 + 0.57%
Bombay Sensex* 17732.85 - 0.25%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27831.52 + 3.18%
Japan Nikkei 17065.04 - 0.16%
Singapore STI 3822.62 + 1.03%
South Korea Composite 1996.03 - 0.38%
Taiwan Weighted 9617.26 - 0.11%
*Intraday trading
Thursday, October 04, 2007
A 2-Day Correction ... Wonder of Wonders!
Asian markets ended lower, reacting to a lower close on Wall Street, as investors continued to take profits from recent gains. HK was not helped by an article in the South China Morning Post (SCMP) suggesting that the Chinese authorities have banned the simultaneous listings of Chinese companies on the Shanghai and HK exchanges. In future they are supposed to list in Shanghai first and then later in HK.
This of course will have an impact on the HK market. The paper suggested that companies would choose to list in Shanghai because of the higher P/E's compared to HK. They appear to have forgotten that Chinese shares do not enjoy the high P/E's on listing as the CSRC apparently puts pressure on companies to lower their P/E's in order to ensure "successful" underwriting and aftermarket trading.
That does not mean that it would not affect HK. If the company achieves a P/E of, say, 40 times in the aftermarket, how can the management justify a later listing in HK for half of that? Actually, it will be quite easy as there is no market for secondary issues in China, and any additional fund raising will typically cause the stock price to fall. However, in the meantime, while we are all learning the new realities, China keeps chugging along with the lion's share (25%) of the worldwide IPO market. Unfortunately HK has been relegated to 8th place.
You can see how this affected sentiment by the market performance yesterday and today. But isn't it uncanny that the market tanked immediately after lunch as if a signal has been given? Interesting!
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6579.90 - 1.28%
Bombay Sensex* 17753.27 - 0.53%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26973.98 - 1.84%
Japan Nikkei 17092.49 - 0.62%
Singapore STI 3783.81 + 0.78%
South Korea Composite 2003.60 - 0.52%
Taiwan Weighted 9627.39 - 0.75%
*Intraday trading
This of course will have an impact on the HK market. The paper suggested that companies would choose to list in Shanghai because of the higher P/E's compared to HK. They appear to have forgotten that Chinese shares do not enjoy the high P/E's on listing as the CSRC apparently puts pressure on companies to lower their P/E's in order to ensure "successful" underwriting and aftermarket trading.
That does not mean that it would not affect HK. If the company achieves a P/E of, say, 40 times in the aftermarket, how can the management justify a later listing in HK for half of that? Actually, it will be quite easy as there is no market for secondary issues in China, and any additional fund raising will typically cause the stock price to fall. However, in the meantime, while we are all learning the new realities, China keeps chugging along with the lion's share (25%) of the worldwide IPO market. Unfortunately HK has been relegated to 8th place.
You can see how this affected sentiment by the market performance yesterday and today. But isn't it uncanny that the market tanked immediately after lunch as if a signal has been given? Interesting!
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6579.90 - 1.28%
Bombay Sensex* 17753.27 - 0.53%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26973.98 - 1.84%
Japan Nikkei 17092.49 - 0.62%
Singapore STI 3783.81 + 0.78%
South Korea Composite 2003.60 - 0.52%
Taiwan Weighted 9627.39 - 0.75%
*Intraday trading
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Roller Coaster Day
Asian stocks ended mixed, as Tokyo shares hit a two-month high and Hong Kong stocks suffered harsh reversals from profit-taking. When we went to lunch today, the HK market was up some 300 points. After lunch, the HS Index plunged over 719 points to close at 27,479 with record turnover of HK$209 billion.
Is this the beginning of the end? Most likely not. The market was up over 1,000 yesterday for no apparent reason and surely it is due for a correction. Since mid August when the market plunged to 19,500 intra-day, we have gained a handsome 8,000 points. Surely time to take a little profit.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6665.40 - 0.03%
Bombay Sensex* 17719.95 + 2.26%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27479.94 - 2.55%
Japan Nikkei 17199.89 + 0.90%
Singapore STI 3754.62 - 1.03%
South Korea Composite** 2014.09 + 2.62%
Taiwan Weighted 9700.07 + 0.80%
*Intraday trading
Is this the beginning of the end? Most likely not. The market was up over 1,000 yesterday for no apparent reason and surely it is due for a correction. Since mid August when the market plunged to 19,500 intra-day, we have gained a handsome 8,000 points. Surely time to take a little profit.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6665.40 - 0.03%
Bombay Sensex* 17719.95 + 2.26%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27479.94 - 2.55%
Japan Nikkei 17199.89 + 0.90%
Singapore STI 3754.62 - 1.03%
South Korea Composite** 2014.09 + 2.62%
Taiwan Weighted 9700.07 + 0.80%
*Intraday trading
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Who says the market has to be "rational"?
On the back of a 190 point rise in the Dow on Monday, the HK market finished up over 1,057 at 28,199 accompanied by record turnover of HK$163 billion. Turnover this high can only be attributed to institutional buyers who are afraid of being left behind in the rush to "buy China".
As today is the first trading day of the last quarter, the tsunami of foreign institutional funds hitting our shores would guarantee that the year will end on a high note.
The following statistics are made available by the HKEx:
- The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at a record high of 28199.75 today, up 1057.28 points, the fourth largest point rise in history. It was the largest point rise since 20 August 2007 when the index was up 1208.50 points. The HSI's 3.90 per cent rise today was its largest in per cent terms since 19 September 2007 when the index was up 3.98 per cent.
- The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (H-shares index) closed at a record high of 17973.87 today, up 955.93 points, or 5.62 per cent.
- Today's securities market turnover value was $163,942 million, the largest ever.
- Today's turnover value for H-share and red-chip companies was $74,737 million and $18,778 million respectively.
- Today's derivative warrants turnover was $27,987 million, the largest ever.
- A record high total of 1,019,309 trades were concluded today.
- Today's closing market capitalisation was a new high of $20,757.1 billion. The previous trading day's ( 28 September 2007 ) closing market capitalisation was $20,054.9 billion.
Top 10 daily turnover values in history (Up to 2 October 2007)
Daily turnover value in HK$
Main Board GEM Market total
Rank ($) ($) ($) Date
1 163,132,418,781 810,057,000^ 163,942,475,781 2/10/2007
2 148,575,515,387 634,708,800 149,210,224,187 28/9/2007
3 147,053,974,999 831,473,240 147,885,448,239 27/9/2007
4 140,057,412,983 814,970,399 140,872,383,382 24/9/2007
5 138,709,411,014 657,991,096 139,367,402,110 19/9/2007
6 132,283,181,902 710,132,583 132,993,314,485 21/9/2007
7 129,178,392,000 605,960,271 129,784,352,271 25/9/2007
8 126,346,932,691 696,609,067 127,043,541,758 27/8/2007
9 122,942,024,498 639,900,384 123,581,924,882 28/8/2007
10 121,055,884,537 1,314,151,868 122,370,036,405 1/8/2007
^ Figures rounded
Top 10 point rise in history
Up to 2 October 2007
Rank Point rise Date
1 1705.41 29/10/1997
2 1326.24 2/2/1998
3 1208.50 20/8/2007
4 1057.28 2/10/2007
5 978.66 3/9/1997
6 977.79 19/9/2007
7 816.07 25/9/2000
8 806.59 16/10/1998
9 723.99 17/3/2000
10 722.96 31/5/2000
Elsewhere in the region, stocks gained across Asia, with several major indices touching record levels as investors shrugged off continued credit-crunch woes.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6667.60 + 1.33%
Bombay Sensex* 17328.62 + 0.22%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28199.75 + 3.90%
Japan Nikkei 17046.78 + 1.19%
Singapore STI 3790.54 + 0.94%
South Korea Composite 2014.09 + 2.62%
Taiwan Weighted 9623.25 + 1.42%
*Intraday trading
As today is the first trading day of the last quarter, the tsunami of foreign institutional funds hitting our shores would guarantee that the year will end on a high note.
The following statistics are made available by the HKEx:
- The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at a record high of 28199.75 today, up 1057.28 points, the fourth largest point rise in history. It was the largest point rise since 20 August 2007 when the index was up 1208.50 points. The HSI's 3.90 per cent rise today was its largest in per cent terms since 19 September 2007 when the index was up 3.98 per cent.
- The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (H-shares index) closed at a record high of 17973.87 today, up 955.93 points, or 5.62 per cent.
- Today's securities market turnover value was $163,942 million, the largest ever.
- Today's turnover value for H-share and red-chip companies was $74,737 million and $18,778 million respectively.
- Today's derivative warrants turnover was $27,987 million, the largest ever.
- A record high total of 1,019,309 trades were concluded today.
- Today's closing market capitalisation was a new high of $20,757.1 billion. The previous trading day's ( 28 September 2007 ) closing market capitalisation was $20,054.9 billion.
Top 10 daily turnover values in history (Up to 2 October 2007)
Daily turnover value in HK$
Main Board GEM Market total
Rank ($) ($) ($) Date
1 163,132,418,781 810,057,000^ 163,942,475,781 2/10/2007
2 148,575,515,387 634,708,800 149,210,224,187 28/9/2007
3 147,053,974,999 831,473,240 147,885,448,239 27/9/2007
4 140,057,412,983 814,970,399 140,872,383,382 24/9/2007
5 138,709,411,014 657,991,096 139,367,402,110 19/9/2007
6 132,283,181,902 710,132,583 132,993,314,485 21/9/2007
7 129,178,392,000 605,960,271 129,784,352,271 25/9/2007
8 126,346,932,691 696,609,067 127,043,541,758 27/8/2007
9 122,942,024,498 639,900,384 123,581,924,882 28/8/2007
10 121,055,884,537 1,314,151,868 122,370,036,405 1/8/2007
^ Figures rounded
Top 10 point rise in history
Up to 2 October 2007
Rank Point rise Date
1 1705.41 29/10/1997
2 1326.24 2/2/1998
3 1208.50 20/8/2007
4 1057.28 2/10/2007
5 978.66 3/9/1997
6 977.79 19/9/2007
7 816.07 25/9/2000
8 806.59 16/10/1998
9 723.99 17/3/2000
10 722.96 31/5/2000
Elsewhere in the region, stocks gained across Asia, with several major indices touching record levels as investors shrugged off continued credit-crunch woes.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6667.60 + 1.33%
Bombay Sensex* 17328.62 + 0.22%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28199.75 + 3.90%
Japan Nikkei 17046.78 + 1.19%
Singapore STI 3790.54 + 0.94%
South Korea Composite 2014.09 + 2.62%
Taiwan Weighted 9623.25 + 1.42%
*Intraday trading
Monday, October 01, 2007
Holiday in HK
Asian stocks rose modestly, with Tokyo ending higher after the release of a key corporate-sentiment survey. Markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai were closed for Chinese National Holiday holidays.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6579.80 - 0.02%
Bombay Sensex 17328.62 + 0.22%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27142.47 + 0.29%
Japan Nikkei 16845.96 + 0.36%
Singapore STI 3755.22 + 1.32%
South Korea Composite 1962.67 + 0.83%
Taiwan Weighted 9488.50 + 0.13%
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6579.80 - 0.02%
Bombay Sensex 17328.62 + 0.22%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27142.47 + 0.29%
Japan Nikkei 16845.96 + 0.36%
Singapore STI 3755.22 + 1.32%
South Korea Composite 1962.67 + 0.83%
Taiwan Weighted 9488.50 + 0.13%
Friday, September 28, 2007
So Who's Counting the New Highs?
Asian markets closed mostly higher, with Hong Kong and Shanghai ending at record high levels, but profit-taking dragged Japanese shares lower as institutional investors chase Asian themes over the past month.
This was most evident in the HK market which is a proxy for the Chinese Economy. Fund managers cannot be seen to have nee left behind in the final 2 quarters of the year.
The following statistics are made available by the HKEx:
Securities market
- The Hang Seng Index closed at a record high of 27142.47 today, up 77.32 points.
- Today's securities market turnover value was $149,210 million, the largest ever.
- Today's closing market capitalisation was a new high of $20,054.9 billion, exceeding the $20 trillion mark for the first time. The previous trading day's (27 September 2007) closing market capitalisation was $19,937.1 billion.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6580.90 + 0.50%
Bombay Sensex* 17268.95 + 0.69%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27142.47 + 0.29%
Japan Nikkei 16785.69 - 0.28%
Shanghai Composite 5552.30 + 2.64%
Singapore STI 3706.23 - 0.23%
South Korea Composite 1946.48 + 0.06%
Taiwan Weighted 9411.95 - 0.02%
*Intraday trading
This was most evident in the HK market which is a proxy for the Chinese Economy. Fund managers cannot be seen to have nee left behind in the final 2 quarters of the year.
The following statistics are made available by the HKEx:
Securities market
- The Hang Seng Index closed at a record high of 27142.47 today, up 77.32 points.
- Today's securities market turnover value was $149,210 million, the largest ever.
- Today's closing market capitalisation was a new high of $20,054.9 billion, exceeding the $20 trillion mark for the first time. The previous trading day's (27 September 2007) closing market capitalisation was $19,937.1 billion.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6580.90 + 0.50%
Bombay Sensex* 17268.95 + 0.69%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27142.47 + 0.29%
Japan Nikkei 16785.69 - 0.28%
Shanghai Composite 5552.30 + 2.64%
Singapore STI 3706.23 - 0.23%
South Korea Composite 1946.48 + 0.06%
Taiwan Weighted 9411.95 - 0.02%
*Intraday trading
Thursday, September 27, 2007
We're Back!
Asian shares closed sharply higher as markets took their cue from Wall Street. Financial companies paced gainers in Japan, while Hong Kong reached a new record close.
The following statistics are made available by the HKEx:
Securities market
- The Hang Seng Index closed at a record high of 27065.15 today, up 634.86 points.
- Today's securities market turnover value was $147,885 million, the largest ever.
- Today's closing market capitalisation was a new high of $19,937 billion. The previous trading day's (25 September 2007) closing market capitalisation was $19,504 billion.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6548.00 + 0.87%
Bombay Sensex* 17133.51* + 1.25%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27065.15 + 2.40%
Japan Nikkei 16832.22 + 2.41%
Shanghai Composite 5409.40 + 1.33%
Singapore STI 3714.77 + 1.77%
South Korea Composite 1945.28 + 1.36%
Taiwan Weighted 9413.65 + 1.69%
* Intraday trading
The following statistics are made available by the HKEx:
Securities market
- The Hang Seng Index closed at a record high of 27065.15 today, up 634.86 points.
- Today's securities market turnover value was $147,885 million, the largest ever.
- Today's closing market capitalisation was a new high of $19,937 billion. The previous trading day's (25 September 2007) closing market capitalisation was $19,504 billion.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6548.00 + 0.87%
Bombay Sensex* 17133.51* + 1.25%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27065.15 + 2.40%
Japan Nikkei 16832.22 + 2.41%
Shanghai Composite 5409.40 + 1.33%
Singapore STI 3714.77 + 1.77%
South Korea Composite 1945.28 + 1.36%
Taiwan Weighted 9413.65 + 1.69%
* Intraday trading
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
HK Took A Holiday from Setting New Records
Asian shares closed mixed, with Shanghai losing ground on fears of further tightening, while Japan stocks posted slight gains and India's stock market reached another record high.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6491.40 + 0.01%
Bombay Sensex 16921.39 + 0.13%
Hong Kong Hang Seng* 26430.29* - 0.46%
Japan Nikkei 16435.74 + 0.21%
Shanghai Composite 5338.52 - 1.61%
Singapore STI 3650.09 + 0.70%
South Korea Composite* 1919.26* + 0.54%
Taiwan Weighted 9257.47 + 1.67%
* Markets in Hong Kong and South Korea were closed for holidays.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6491.40 + 0.01%
Bombay Sensex 16921.39 + 0.13%
Hong Kong Hang Seng* 26430.29* - 0.46%
Japan Nikkei 16435.74 + 0.21%
Shanghai Composite 5338.52 - 1.61%
Singapore STI 3650.09 + 0.70%
South Korea Composite* 1919.26* + 0.54%
Taiwan Weighted 9257.47 + 1.67%
* Markets in Hong Kong and South Korea were closed for holidays.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Finally A Rest
Asian shares closed mixed, with airline companies weighing on indexes in Hong Kong and Shanghai, while metal stocks paced gainers in Japan, boosted by higher commodities prices.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6490.90 + 0.46%
Bombay Sensex 16899.54 + 0.32%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26430.29 - 0.46%
Japan Nikkei 16401.73 + 0.55%
Shanghai Composite 5425.88 - 1.08%
Singapore STI 3624.82 - 0.39%
South Korea Composite* 1919.26* + 0.54%
Taiwan Weighted* 9105.28* + 1.36%
* South Korean and Taiwanese markets were closed for holidays.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6490.90 + 0.46%
Bombay Sensex 16899.54 + 0.32%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26430.29 - 0.46%
Japan Nikkei 16401.73 + 0.55%
Shanghai Composite 5425.88 - 1.08%
Singapore STI 3624.82 - 0.39%
South Korea Composite* 1919.26* + 0.54%
Taiwan Weighted* 9105.28* + 1.36%
* South Korean and Taiwanese markets were closed for holidays.
Monday, September 24, 2007
4th Consecutive High
Asian shares closed higher, with Hong Kong hitting a record close for the fourth consecutive day, while resource stocks led both Shanghai and Sydney to new record highs.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6461.10 + 1.41%
Bombay Sensex* 16845.83* + 1.70%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26551.94 + 2.74%
Japan Nikkei** 16312.61** - 0.62%
Shanghai Composite 5485.01 + 0.56%
Singapore STI 3639.02 + 2.73%
South Korea Composite** 1919.26** + 0.54%
Taiwan Weighted** 9105.28** + 1.36%
* Intraday trading
** As of Sept. 21. Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese markets were closed Monday for holidays.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6461.10 + 1.41%
Bombay Sensex* 16845.83* + 1.70%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26551.94 + 2.74%
Japan Nikkei** 16312.61** - 0.62%
Shanghai Composite 5485.01 + 0.56%
Singapore STI 3639.02 + 2.73%
South Korea Composite** 1919.26** + 0.54%
Taiwan Weighted** 9105.28** + 1.36%
* Intraday trading
** As of Sept. 21. Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese markets were closed Monday for holidays.
Friday, September 21, 2007
3rd Consecutive High
Hong Kong stocks reached their third consecutive record high. What can I say?
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6371.20 - 0.46%
Bombay Sensex* 16491.73 + 0.88%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 25843.78 + 0.56%
Japan Nikkei 16312.61 - 0.62%
Shanghai Composite 5454.67 - 0.28%
Singapore STI* 3544.69 - 0.22%
South Korea Composite 1919.26 + 0.54%
Taiwan Weighted 9105.28 + 1.36%
*Intraday trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6371.20 - 0.46%
Bombay Sensex* 16491.73 + 0.88%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 25843.78 + 0.56%
Japan Nikkei 16312.61 - 0.62%
Shanghai Composite 5454.67 - 0.28%
Singapore STI* 3544.69 - 0.22%
South Korea Composite 1919.26 + 0.54%
Taiwan Weighted 9105.28 + 1.36%
*Intraday trading
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Most Asian indexes advanced for the second straight day. Hong Kong reaching a new record and Japanese stocks giving back early gains. Australia's central bank drained liquidity in a sign the credit crunch is easing its grip.
The story in HK is "same old, same old". Actually, it is getting a bit boring with new highs everyday. But as a trader, we must remember the old adage "Trade what you see, not what you think!" In other words don't argue with the market, you are not the only one with smarts.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6400.90 + 0.61%
Bombay Sensex* 16347.95* + 0.15%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 25701.13 + 0.57%
Japan Nikkei 16413.79 + 0.20%
Shanghai Composite 5470.06 + 1.39%
Singapore STI 3552.46 - 1.17%
South Korea Composite 1908.97 + 0.33%
Taiwan Weighted 8983.03 + 0.63%
* Intraday trading
The story in HK is "same old, same old". Actually, it is getting a bit boring with new highs everyday. But as a trader, we must remember the old adage "Trade what you see, not what you think!" In other words don't argue with the market, you are not the only one with smarts.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6400.90 + 0.61%
Bombay Sensex* 16347.95* + 0.15%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 25701.13 + 0.57%
Japan Nikkei 16413.79 + 0.20%
Shanghai Composite 5470.06 + 1.39%
Singapore STI 3552.46 - 1.17%
South Korea Composite 1908.97 + 0.33%
Taiwan Weighted 8983.03 + 0.63%
* Intraday trading
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
First Cut Is The Deepest
To paraphrase Rod Stewart's song.
The FOMC surprised everyone by cutting the Fed Funds rate by 1/2% instead of the widely expected 1/4%. The US market reacted by rising 335. HK opened up 900 and at one stage was up over 1,000. The market closed at 25,555 up 977 on heavy turnover of HK$138.7 billion.
The Fed moved aggressively in the first rate cut in 4 years sending out a very strong signal that it will do what is necessary to stop the sub prime woes from spilling into the broader market. The issue is one of moral hazard. Should the Fed bail out those financially irresponsible who put us into this mess in the first place. At the end, it was a no brainer. The Fed cannot afford to penalise the entire economy by punishing the irresponsible. Besides, a 1/2% cut will not bail out those who borrowed 100% at teaser rates and are now seeing their rates re-set to double.
The "Bernanke Put"? Not! However, the Fed also cut the discount rate by 1/2% to 5.25% in a bid to provide more liquidity to the market to facilitate roll overs of commercial papers.
Asian stocks and currencies surged in response to an aggressive Federal Reserve interest-rate cut, as the U.S. central bank moved to limit the risk of an economic downturn.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6362.00 + 2.48%
Bombay Sensex* 16304.32* + 4.05%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 25554.64 + 3.98%
Japan Nikkei 16381.54 + 3.67%
Shanghai Composite 5395.26 - 0.55%
Singapore STI 3594.36 + 3.35%
South Korea Composite 1902.65 + 3.48%
Taiwan Weighted 8926.38 + 0.30%
* Intraday trading
The FOMC surprised everyone by cutting the Fed Funds rate by 1/2% instead of the widely expected 1/4%. The US market reacted by rising 335. HK opened up 900 and at one stage was up over 1,000. The market closed at 25,555 up 977 on heavy turnover of HK$138.7 billion.
The Fed moved aggressively in the first rate cut in 4 years sending out a very strong signal that it will do what is necessary to stop the sub prime woes from spilling into the broader market. The issue is one of moral hazard. Should the Fed bail out those financially irresponsible who put us into this mess in the first place. At the end, it was a no brainer. The Fed cannot afford to penalise the entire economy by punishing the irresponsible. Besides, a 1/2% cut will not bail out those who borrowed 100% at teaser rates and are now seeing their rates re-set to double.
The "Bernanke Put"? Not! However, the Fed also cut the discount rate by 1/2% to 5.25% in a bid to provide more liquidity to the market to facilitate roll overs of commercial papers.
Asian stocks and currencies surged in response to an aggressive Federal Reserve interest-rate cut, as the U.S. central bank moved to limit the risk of an economic downturn.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6362.00 + 2.48%
Bombay Sensex* 16304.32* + 4.05%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 25554.64 + 3.98%
Japan Nikkei 16381.54 + 3.67%
Shanghai Composite 5395.26 - 0.55%
Singapore STI 3594.36 + 3.35%
South Korea Composite 1902.65 + 3.48%
Taiwan Weighted 8926.38 + 0.30%
* Intraday trading
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Waiting for the Fed
In Hong Kong, property firms lost ground for a second day on profit-taking as we all waited with bated breath for the Fed meeting tonight (US time 18 September 2007). The expectation is that he will cut the Fed Funds rate by 1/4 percent. Some are hoping for a 1/2 percent cut.
I had just returned from a short visit to the US over the weekend. The man in the street does not appear too concerned about the economy which shows that the sub prime problems have only touched the edges so far. But! I was taking a stroll with my grandson one nioght and saw a "For Sale" sign outside a house on the development. It said, "New Price". This is a weak attempt to disguise "Reduced Further" that we see often in store sales. Homeowners are finding it more difficult to move their properties and can only mean that prices are coming DOWN.
The pain will be felt first by the builders and developers who have taken loans for the development. They will be forced to cut prices to liquidate their invnetory and repay loans. We are already seeing very generous incentives in the form of "upgrades" etc as they try to keep the top line prices from falling. The froth have gone out of the property market and everyone has adopted a "wait and see" attitude which is markedly different from the "buy before it's too late" mentality from the last 2 years. People are no longer camping out overnight to get in line to buy homes.
I went to my bank on Friday morning and was collared by a loans officer who offered me an equity loan on my house. No fees, no costs and a 1/2 percentage off the interest rate. On the surface, this appears to be business as usual. But this is in contrast to people lining up to take out 2nd mortgages to buy vacation homes, or investment properties. People are much more cautious and that can only mean that the adjustment has not yet run its course.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6208.00 - 1.20%
Bombay Sensex* 15669.12* + 1.06%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 24576.85 - 0.09%
Japan Nikkei 15801.80 - 2.02%
Shanghai Composite 5425.20 + 0.07%
Singapore STI 3477.75 + 0.04%
South Korea Composite 1838.61 - 1.77%
Taiwan Weighted** 8899.91** - 1.46%
* Intraday trading
** As of Sept. 17. Markets were closed in Taiwan due to Typhoon Wipha.
I had just returned from a short visit to the US over the weekend. The man in the street does not appear too concerned about the economy which shows that the sub prime problems have only touched the edges so far. But! I was taking a stroll with my grandson one nioght and saw a "For Sale" sign outside a house on the development. It said, "New Price". This is a weak attempt to disguise "Reduced Further" that we see often in store sales. Homeowners are finding it more difficult to move their properties and can only mean that prices are coming DOWN.
The pain will be felt first by the builders and developers who have taken loans for the development. They will be forced to cut prices to liquidate their invnetory and repay loans. We are already seeing very generous incentives in the form of "upgrades" etc as they try to keep the top line prices from falling. The froth have gone out of the property market and everyone has adopted a "wait and see" attitude which is markedly different from the "buy before it's too late" mentality from the last 2 years. People are no longer camping out overnight to get in line to buy homes.
I went to my bank on Friday morning and was collared by a loans officer who offered me an equity loan on my house. No fees, no costs and a 1/2 percentage off the interest rate. On the surface, this appears to be business as usual. But this is in contrast to people lining up to take out 2nd mortgages to buy vacation homes, or investment properties. People are much more cautious and that can only mean that the adjustment has not yet run its course.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6208.00 - 1.20%
Bombay Sensex* 15669.12* + 1.06%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 24576.85 - 0.09%
Japan Nikkei 15801.80 - 2.02%
Shanghai Composite 5425.20 + 0.07%
Singapore STI 3477.75 + 0.04%
South Korea Composite 1838.61 - 1.77%
Taiwan Weighted** 8899.91** - 1.46%
* Intraday trading
** As of Sept. 17. Markets were closed in Taiwan due to Typhoon Wipha.
Monday, September 17, 2007
HK retreated on Profit Taking
Asian shares closed mixed, with Hong Kong property firms dropping on profit-taking, while Shanghai reached another record close on strong gains from airlines and insurers.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6283.70 - 0.51%
Bombay Sensex* 15504.43* - 0.64%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 24599.34 - 1.20%
Japan Nikkei** 16127.42** + 1.94%
Shanghai Composite 5421.39 + 2.06%
Singapore STI 3476.31 - 1.70%
South Korea Composite 1871.68 + 0.09%
Taiwan Weighted 8899.91 - 1.46%
* Intraday trading
** As of Sept. 14. Martkets were closed in Japan for a national holiday.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6283.70 - 0.51%
Bombay Sensex* 15504.43* - 0.64%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 24599.34 - 1.20%
Japan Nikkei** 16127.42** + 1.94%
Shanghai Composite 5421.39 + 2.06%
Singapore STI 3476.31 - 1.70%
South Korea Composite 1871.68 + 0.09%
Taiwan Weighted 8899.91 - 1.46%
* Intraday trading
** As of Sept. 14. Martkets were closed in Japan for a national holiday.
Friday, September 14, 2007
Yet Another New High!
Asian markets rose Friday after U.S. stocks rallied, with Japanese indexes lifted by metals stocks and exporters. Hong Kong shares reached their third record close.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6315.70 + 1.14%
Bombay Sensex* 15603.80 - 0.07%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 24898.11 + 1.47%
Japan Nikkei 16127.42 + 1.94%
Shanghai Composite 5312.18 + 0.07%
Singapore STI 3536.40 + 0.91%
South Korea Composite 1870.02 + 1.19%
Taiwan Weighted 9031.63 + 1.17%
*Intraday trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6315.70 + 1.14%
Bombay Sensex* 15603.80 - 0.07%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 24898.11 + 1.47%
Japan Nikkei 16127.42 + 1.94%
Shanghai Composite 5312.18 + 0.07%
Singapore STI 3536.40 + 0.91%
South Korea Composite 1870.02 + 1.19%
Taiwan Weighted 9031.63 + 1.17%
*Intraday trading
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Another New High for HK!
Asian shares closed higher, with expectations of lower interest rates to come property firms pushing Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index to a new record.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng 24537.02 + 0.93%
Japan Nikkei 15821.19 + 0.15%
Shanghai Composite 5273.59 + 1.95%
Singapore STI 3504.40 - 0.05%
South Korea Composite 1848.02 + 1.90%
Taiwan Weighted 8927.42 - 1.01%
*Intraday trading
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng 24537.02 + 0.93%
Japan Nikkei 15821.19 + 0.15%
Shanghai Composite 5273.59 + 1.95%
Singapore STI 3504.40 - 0.05%
South Korea Composite 1848.02 + 1.90%
Taiwan Weighted 8927.42 - 1.01%
*Intraday trading
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Hong Kong Hits a Record High ...Again!
The Hang Seng Index closed up 357 points or 1.49 per cent at a record 24,310, after reaching an intraday high of 24329. The total market capitalisation of Hong Kong stocks also exceeded $18 trillion for the first time yesterday at $18.148 trillion.
While some commentators are castigating the HK Government for intervening in the market by buying 5.88% of the HKEx, investors were looking for the next stock to benefit from government intervention. Attention seem to be focused on the listed Mass transit Railway (MTR) ahead of a crucial vote on the merger with the unlisted Kowloon and Canton Railway Corporation (KCRC). Another candidate is the Link REIT which is under pressure from hedge funds to raise rents on shopping centres used by low income housing residents.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng 24310.14 + 1.49%
Japan Nikkei 15797.60 - 0.50%
Shanghai Composite 5172.62 + 1.15
Singapore STI 3506.09 + 0.33%
South Korea Composite 1813.52 - 1.83%
Taiwan Weighted 9018.12 + 0.17%
*Intraday trading
While some commentators are castigating the HK Government for intervening in the market by buying 5.88% of the HKEx, investors were looking for the next stock to benefit from government intervention. Attention seem to be focused on the listed Mass transit Railway (MTR) ahead of a crucial vote on the merger with the unlisted Kowloon and Canton Railway Corporation (KCRC). Another candidate is the Link REIT which is under pressure from hedge funds to raise rents on shopping centres used by low income housing residents.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng 24310.14 + 1.49%
Japan Nikkei 15797.60 - 0.50%
Shanghai Composite 5172.62 + 1.15
Singapore STI 3506.09 + 0.33%
South Korea Composite 1813.52 - 1.83%
Taiwan Weighted 9018.12 + 0.17%
*Intraday trading
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Inflation Fears Hit Chinese Shares
China's inflation rose in August to the highest level in more than a decade while the country's August trade surplus climbed to its second-highest level ever. The Mainland's CPI rose 6.5% year on year (the target at the beginning of the year was 3%).
Investors were cautious that the central bank will further tighten liquidity. The central bank had raised interest rates 4 times this year, and increased bank reserve ratios 7 times. Shanghai fell 4.5% and Shenzhen fell 4.4%. HK managed to stay fairly steady because the valuations had not risen at the same pace as the Mainland markets.
China announced it's foreign exchange reserves is now almost US$1.4 trillion in July 2007. Since the first Mainland enterprise (Tsingtao Beer) listed in HK in 1993, Mainland enterprises have now raised US$200 billion in the HK market one-seventh of the country's foreign reserves. Yes, HK benefited from Mainland enterprises listing here, but we also played a part in building the financial infrastrucutre.
The recently announced through train, QDII relaxations etc. are aimed at reducing inflationary pressures on the Mainland by trying to divert some of the liquidity slooshing around into investments in HK.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng: 23952.24 - 0.20%
Japan Nikkei: 15877.67 + 0.71%
Shanghai Composite: 5113.96 - 4.51%
Singapore STI: 3494.57 + 1.53%
South Korea Composite: 1847.36 + 0.63%
Taiwan Weighted: 9003.12 + 0.73%
*Intraday trading
Investors were cautious that the central bank will further tighten liquidity. The central bank had raised interest rates 4 times this year, and increased bank reserve ratios 7 times. Shanghai fell 4.5% and Shenzhen fell 4.4%. HK managed to stay fairly steady because the valuations had not risen at the same pace as the Mainland markets.
China announced it's foreign exchange reserves is now almost US$1.4 trillion in July 2007. Since the first Mainland enterprise (Tsingtao Beer) listed in HK in 1993, Mainland enterprises have now raised US$200 billion in the HK market one-seventh of the country's foreign reserves. Yes, HK benefited from Mainland enterprises listing here, but we also played a part in building the financial infrastrucutre.
The recently announced through train, QDII relaxations etc. are aimed at reducing inflationary pressures on the Mainland by trying to divert some of the liquidity slooshing around into investments in HK.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng: 23952.24 - 0.20%
Japan Nikkei: 15877.67 + 0.71%
Shanghai Composite: 5113.96 - 4.51%
Singapore STI: 3494.57 + 1.53%
South Korea Composite: 1847.36 + 0.63%
Taiwan Weighted: 9003.12 + 0.73%
*Intraday trading
Monday, September 10, 2007
Where the US Goes ... A Tale of 2 Markets
The HK market fell in early trading because of worries that Friday's weak US job data and DJIA drop of 249 points would carry over.
However, by the end of trading, the market had recovered its nerve and closed up at 23,999,70.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng 23999.70 +0.07%
Japan Nikkei 15764.97 -2.22%
Shanghai Composite 5355.29 +1.50%
Singapore STI 3441.87 -1.35%
South Korea Composite 1835.87 -2.60%
Taiwan Weighted 8937.58 -0.89%
*Intraday trading
However, by the end of trading, the market had recovered its nerve and closed up at 23,999,70.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng 23999.70 +0.07%
Japan Nikkei 15764.97 -2.22%
Shanghai Composite 5355.29 +1.50%
Singapore STI 3441.87 -1.35%
South Korea Composite 1835.87 -2.60%
Taiwan Weighted 8937.58 -0.89%
*Intraday trading
Friday, September 07, 2007
HK Inc.
The HK Governement announced that it now owns 5.88% of the HK Exchange (#388)making it the single largest shareholder. This drew criticism of market intervention.
Of course, in Singapore, the Government is majority owner (through GIC and Temasek) of almost all mbig listed companies. Somehow, Singapore has escaped criticism. Of course, HK does not complain to being held to higher standards.
Some complain that tighter integration of the HK and Mainland markets would expose HK to the risk of "policy" driving the market (i.e. vis-a-vis China). Maybe they have forgotten to take a look at the make up of the HK market. Over 50% of the market capitalisation is from mainland stocks, over 60% of the daily turnover are in Mainland stocks, and over 90% of the funds raised are for Mainland enterprises. Like it or not, HK is a proxy market for the Mainland.
Foreign investors are not allowed to invest directly in the Mainland. They do it either through the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) scheme or through the HK market. The quota for QFII is US$10 billion shared among 50 institutions (less than 1 day's turnover on the HKEx). No wonder the HK market is so active.
The HK Government already appoints 6 of the 13 directors of the HKEx including the Chairman and the CEO who is an ex-offico member of the Board. Also, investors need to get the approval of the Financial Secretary to own more than 5% of the shares.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng 23982.61 - 0.28%
Japan Nikkei 16122.16 - 0.83%
Shanghai Composite 5277.18 - 2.20%
Singapore STI 3488.97 + 0.66%
South Korea Composite 1884.90 - 0.21%
Taiwan Weighted 9018.08 + 0.01%
*Intraday trading
Of course, in Singapore, the Government is majority owner (through GIC and Temasek) of almost all mbig listed companies. Somehow, Singapore has escaped criticism. Of course, HK does not complain to being held to higher standards.
Some complain that tighter integration of the HK and Mainland markets would expose HK to the risk of "policy" driving the market (i.e. vis-a-vis China). Maybe they have forgotten to take a look at the make up of the HK market. Over 50% of the market capitalisation is from mainland stocks, over 60% of the daily turnover are in Mainland stocks, and over 90% of the funds raised are for Mainland enterprises. Like it or not, HK is a proxy market for the Mainland.
Foreign investors are not allowed to invest directly in the Mainland. They do it either through the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) scheme or through the HK market. The quota for QFII is US$10 billion shared among 50 institutions (less than 1 day's turnover on the HKEx). No wonder the HK market is so active.
The HK Government already appoints 6 of the 13 directors of the HKEx including the Chairman and the CEO who is an ex-offico member of the Board. Also, investors need to get the approval of the Financial Secretary to own more than 5% of the shares.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng 23982.61 - 0.28%
Japan Nikkei 16122.16 - 0.83%
Shanghai Composite 5277.18 - 2.20%
Singapore STI 3488.97 + 0.66%
South Korea Composite 1884.90 - 0.21%
Taiwan Weighted 9018.08 + 0.01%
*Intraday trading
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Tighter Bank Reserves in China
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) raised the cash reserves that banks are required to keep up from 12% to 12.5%. This 0.5% increase will take RMB 170 billion off the table. The Chinese economy has been growing at a breakneck speed of over 9% per annum since it was opened 30 years ago.
The "non stop through train" to invest in HK shares will likely be delayed until after the 17th Congress while technical details are being worked out. However, at the same time the minimum RMB 300,000 required for investment in Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors scheme has been reduced to RMB 100,000. Which coincidentally is the same level as originally proposed for the through train for individual investors. Rumours are that it will be be increased to RMB 300,000 --- go figure! Seems like the CSRC, the CBRC, PBOC and SAFE really have to start talking to each other.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng 24050.40 - 0.08%
Japan Nikkei 16257.00 + 0.61%
Shanghai Composite 5393.66 + 1.56%
Singapore STI 3466.06 + 0.61%
South Korea Composite 1888.81 + 1.24%
Taiwan Weighted 9017.08 + 1.16%
*Intraday trading
The "non stop through train" to invest in HK shares will likely be delayed until after the 17th Congress while technical details are being worked out. However, at the same time the minimum RMB 300,000 required for investment in Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors scheme has been reduced to RMB 100,000. Which coincidentally is the same level as originally proposed for the through train for individual investors. Rumours are that it will be be increased to RMB 300,000 --- go figure! Seems like the CSRC, the CBRC, PBOC and SAFE really have to start talking to each other.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng 24050.40 - 0.08%
Japan Nikkei 16257.00 + 0.61%
Shanghai Composite 5393.66 + 1.56%
Singapore STI 3466.06 + 0.61%
South Korea Composite 1888.81 + 1.24%
Taiwan Weighted 9017.08 + 1.16%
*Intraday trading
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Putting the Worries Behind Us
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng 24069.17 + 0.77%
Japan Nikkei 16158.45 - 1.60%
Shanghai Composite 5310.71 + 0.31%
Singapore STI* 3441.10 + 1.93%
South Korea Composite 2534.38 - 0.49%
Taiwan Weighted 8913.85 - 0.10%
*Intraday trading
Hong Kong Hang Seng 24069.17 + 0.77%
Japan Nikkei 16158.45 - 1.60%
Shanghai Composite 5310.71 + 0.31%
Singapore STI* 3441.10 + 1.93%
South Korea Composite 2534.38 - 0.49%
Taiwan Weighted 8913.85 - 0.10%
*Intraday trading
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Waiting for August
Hong Kong was dragged down by profit-taking and investors awaited the release of key U.S. economic data for August.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng 23886.07 - 0.08%
Japan Nikkei 16420.47 - 0.63%
Shanghai Composite 5294.04 - 0.51%
Singapore STI 3376.06 - 0.30%
South Korea Composite 1874.74 - 0.38%
Taiwan Weighted 8922.98 - 0.63%
*Intraday trading
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng 23886.07 - 0.08%
Japan Nikkei 16420.47 - 0.63%
Shanghai Composite 5294.04 - 0.51%
Singapore STI 3376.06 - 0.30%
South Korea Composite 1874.74 - 0.38%
Taiwan Weighted 8922.98 - 0.63%
*Intraday trading
Monday, September 03, 2007
No follow through on Friday's Rise
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng 23904.09 - 0.33%
Japan Nikkei 16524.93 - 0.27%
Shanghai Composite 5321.05 + 1.96%
Singapore STI 3386.22 - 0.20%
South Korea Composite 1881.81 + 0.46%
Taiwan Weighted 8979.96 - 0.02%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 23904.09 - 0.33%
Japan Nikkei 16524.93 - 0.27%
Shanghai Composite 5321.05 + 1.96%
Singapore STI 3386.22 - 0.20%
South Korea Composite 1881.81 + 0.46%
Taiwan Weighted 8979.96 - 0.02%
Friday, August 31, 2007
Jackson Hole to the Rescue
The Hang Seng Index was up 499 to close at 23,984.14, yet another new high.
And to what do we owe this? Anticipation that, in his speech in Jackson Hole today, the Fed Chairman will tip his hand about the coming cut to the Fed Funds rate (most are expecting 0.25% and some are even looking for 0.5%) at the next meeting on 18 September 2007. As if that wasn't enough, the Washington Post has published leaks of the President's plan to rescue home owners who are unable to refinance their 0% down, no interest teaser loans. It's a wonder that the market did not finish up 1,000!!!
It seems that political expediency has taken precedence to financial responsibility. Mortgage brokers earned fat fees to help unqualified buyers buy over priced homes they could not afford. Now the US government is proposing to bail them out! And the Hong Kong government was accused of intervening in the HK stock market in 1998 by fighting off the hedge funds who were intent on bringing down our financial system like they did in the rest of Asia. "Let the market adjust to the correct level", they said.
Any way, I am real glad I am not a US taxpayer now being asked to finance some dumb borrower who got himself into trouble. Hmm, maybe they were not so dumb after all.
Locally, the Securities and Futures Commission "SFC" issued a restriction notice on Man Lung Hong Securities Ltd (broker numbers: 3490 and 3499) today (Friday 31 Aug 2007) under sections 204 and 205 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance.
The HKEx, has suspended Man Lung Hong's right to access the trading system, and declared Man Lung Hong a defaulter under Rule 3702 of the Rules of CCASS, the Central Clearing and Settlement System. HKEx will closeout the unsettled stock positions of Man Lung Hong Securities.
Last year 3 brokerages were put under restriction orders (2 subsequently folded and 1 was rescued) when the SFC found that they had mis-appropriated clients' assets. The current case is different in that apparently an employee misappropriated his clients' assets. The firm was put under a restriction order because apparently senior management had been aware of the mis-appropriation for some time and had allowed the employee to try to trade out of the position. Under the Securities and Futures Ordinance, the firm is required to notify the SFC as soon as practicable on discovering the problem.
Clients can seek compensation from the Investors Compensation Fund which would pay out a maximum of HK$150,000 per account. Many have questioned whether the sum reflects current market conditions as it was set during the collapse of CA Pacific (a brokerage) in 1998 and have not been adjusted since (the market have almost tripled in that time). The maximum payout was set at HK$150,000 as this was sufficient to pay off 80% of the clients in full. Clients with bigger balances were deemed to have been sufficiently sophisticated to assess the risk and did not need to be rescued.
The Fund has approximately HK$1.5 billion and was funded by a 0.002% levy on stock trading transactions. The levy was discontinued at the end of 2005 but can be re-instated should the balance fall below HK$1.0 billion.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng: 23,984.14 +2.13%
Japan Nikkei: 16,569.09 +2.57%
Shanghai Composite: 5,218.82 +0.99%
Singapore STI*: 3,373.73 +1.58%
South Korea Composite: 1,873.24 +1.71%
Taiwan Weighted: 8982.16 +2.02%
*Intraday trading
And to what do we owe this? Anticipation that, in his speech in Jackson Hole today, the Fed Chairman will tip his hand about the coming cut to the Fed Funds rate (most are expecting 0.25% and some are even looking for 0.5%) at the next meeting on 18 September 2007. As if that wasn't enough, the Washington Post has published leaks of the President's plan to rescue home owners who are unable to refinance their 0% down, no interest teaser loans. It's a wonder that the market did not finish up 1,000!!!
It seems that political expediency has taken precedence to financial responsibility. Mortgage brokers earned fat fees to help unqualified buyers buy over priced homes they could not afford. Now the US government is proposing to bail them out! And the Hong Kong government was accused of intervening in the HK stock market in 1998 by fighting off the hedge funds who were intent on bringing down our financial system like they did in the rest of Asia. "Let the market adjust to the correct level", they said.
Any way, I am real glad I am not a US taxpayer now being asked to finance some dumb borrower who got himself into trouble. Hmm, maybe they were not so dumb after all.
Locally, the Securities and Futures Commission "SFC" issued a restriction notice on Man Lung Hong Securities Ltd (broker numbers: 3490 and 3499) today (Friday 31 Aug 2007) under sections 204 and 205 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance.
The HKEx, has suspended Man Lung Hong's right to access the trading system, and declared Man Lung Hong a defaulter under Rule 3702 of the Rules of CCASS, the Central Clearing and Settlement System. HKEx will closeout the unsettled stock positions of Man Lung Hong Securities.
Last year 3 brokerages were put under restriction orders (2 subsequently folded and 1 was rescued) when the SFC found that they had mis-appropriated clients' assets. The current case is different in that apparently an employee misappropriated his clients' assets. The firm was put under a restriction order because apparently senior management had been aware of the mis-appropriation for some time and had allowed the employee to try to trade out of the position. Under the Securities and Futures Ordinance, the firm is required to notify the SFC as soon as practicable on discovering the problem.
Clients can seek compensation from the Investors Compensation Fund which would pay out a maximum of HK$150,000 per account. Many have questioned whether the sum reflects current market conditions as it was set during the collapse of CA Pacific (a brokerage) in 1998 and have not been adjusted since (the market have almost tripled in that time). The maximum payout was set at HK$150,000 as this was sufficient to pay off 80% of the clients in full. Clients with bigger balances were deemed to have been sufficiently sophisticated to assess the risk and did not need to be rescued.
The Fund has approximately HK$1.5 billion and was funded by a 0.002% levy on stock trading transactions. The levy was discontinued at the end of 2005 but can be re-instated should the balance fall below HK$1.0 billion.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng: 23,984.14 +2.13%
Japan Nikkei: 16,569.09 +2.57%
Shanghai Composite: 5,218.82 +0.99%
Singapore STI*: 3,373.73 +1.58%
South Korea Composite: 1,873.24 +1.71%
Taiwan Weighted: 8982.16 +2.02%
*Intraday trading
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Where the US Goes ... We Follow!
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed last night up 247 as investors re-evaluated the Fed's position. A letter to Sen. Charles Schumer from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledging to "act as needed" to help the economy (read cutting Fed Funds Rate) should the problems in the credit market start to affect the wider economy.
The Hang Seng Index rose 463 to close at 23,483 with turnover of HK$95.87 billion. China Construction Bank was outstanding and rose to an all-time high of HK$6.30 before closing off the day's high. All in all, it appears that investors have got their nerve back and started bargain hunting.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng: 23,484.54 +2.02%
Japan Nikkei: 16,153.82 +0.88%
Shanghai Composite: 5,167.88 +1.14%
Singapore STI*: 3,342.28 +0.23%
South Korea Composite: 1,841.70 +0.85%
Taiwan Weighted: 8,771.21 +1.48%
*Intraday trading
The Hang Seng Index rose 463 to close at 23,483 with turnover of HK$95.87 billion. China Construction Bank was outstanding and rose to an all-time high of HK$6.30 before closing off the day's high. All in all, it appears that investors have got their nerve back and started bargain hunting.
Market Indices
Hong Kong Hang Seng: 23,484.54 +2.02%
Japan Nikkei: 16,153.82 +0.88%
Shanghai Composite: 5,167.88 +1.14%
Singapore STI*: 3,342.28 +0.23%
South Korea Composite: 1,841.70 +0.85%
Taiwan Weighted: 8,771.21 +1.48%
*Intraday trading
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Where is the Fed Cavalry?
The US market was down 280, and the HK market followed suit. At one stage the market was down 700 but managed to close at 23,020 down 343. Turnover was HK$104.2 billion.
There was disappointment that the Fed is still targeting inflation as "public enemy no. 1". This is read as meaning that there will not be a cut in Fed Funds rate in the short term.
The Fed was in a bind. Clearly, what is happening on Wall Street is affecting Main Street. The housing slowdown is worrying as it will spill over into other areas e.g. household goods, etc. Consider that the acquisition price of Home depot was cut substantially to reflect not only the availability of funds, but also future prospects. However, just 2 weeks before the sub prime mess hit the fan, the Fed had been saying that inflation was still worrying. Perhaps it was naive to expect the Fed to admitting it was wrong so soon.
I expect that there will be a cut in the Fed Funds rate in the not too distant future as the economy starts to show signs of slowing down. The next FOMC meeting will be on 18 September 2007. At that time, the Fed will data from which to draw conclusions on the state of the economy.
Market Indices
There was disappointment that the Fed is still targeting inflation as "public enemy no. 1". This is read as meaning that there will not be a cut in Fed Funds rate in the short term.
The Fed was in a bind. Clearly, what is happening on Wall Street is affecting Main Street. The housing slowdown is worrying as it will spill over into other areas e.g. household goods, etc. Consider that the acquisition price of Home depot was cut substantially to reflect not only the availability of funds, but also future prospects. However, just 2 weeks before the sub prime mess hit the fan, the Fed had been saying that inflation was still worrying. Perhaps it was naive to expect the Fed to admitting it was wrong so soon.
I expect that there will be a cut in the Fed Funds rate in the not too distant future as the economy starts to show signs of slowing down. The next FOMC meeting will be on 18 September 2007. At that time, the Fed will data from which to draw conclusions on the state of the economy.
Market Indices
- Bombay Sensex*: 14,977.96 + 0.39%
- Hong Kong Hang Seng: 23,020.60 -1.47%
- Japan Nikkei: 16,012.83 -1.69%
- Shanghai Composite: 5,109.42 -1.64%
- Singapore STI*: 3,304.99 -1.14%
- South Korea Composite: 1,826.19 -0.17%
- Taiwan Weighted: 8,643.32 -0.97%
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