Friday, June 25, 2004

After yesterday's 300 over points rise, today was comparatively quiet.

China's premier Wen Jia Bo said that the administrative measures are working and should bring the Chinese economy to a soft landing. This is read as meaning that interest rates will not need to be increased (at least not in the near future, and not drastically). The market cheered and up she went.

If you remember, the whole thing started with the rumour that the People's Bank of China had submitted a plan to increase rates to the State Council. Of course, when this was denied, the market paid no attention because the original comment that the economy was overheating and administrative measures were needed came from Wen himself. It took another comment from him to reverse the effects.

Does this mean that from now on, only Wen's comments are to be believed? This is a problem with a command economy. He who commands the economy, commands attention. The china watchers will only believe one man. He's going to be very busy making pronouncements on all matters large and small.

The HKEx has given a waiver to Hutchison (#13) to include the Indian telecoms assets in the spinoff of the telecoms business even though that will be spunoff within 3 years of the new listing. I am looking for Hutchison and Cheung Kong (#1) to provide some leadership next week.

Thursday, June 17, 2004

The market was under pressure all day from the opening, and finished down 78 to 12,082.

Cheung Kong (#1) was down 0.75 to 56.75. Hutchison (#13) closed 52.00 down 0.25.

Sinopec (#386) was down 0.075 to 2.775 and China Telecom (#728) closed 2.525 down 0.05. China shares were all down even though the administrative measures to cool down the economy appears to be taking effect and there may not be a need to increase interest rates.

CSCL (#2866) which started trading yesterday was down again to 2.55 from the ipo price of 3.175 due in part to Citicorps "sell" call with a target price of 2.30. Thanks Citibank!

Wednesday, June 16, 2004

The market was up 111 today to close at 12,161 mainly because of easing fears of sharp interest rate increases in the US (based on Alan Greenspan's testimony). Also, China has come out and said that it would use administrative procedures to cool the economy rather than increase interest rates.

Cheung Kong (#1) opened higher at 58.75 but retreated to close at 57.50. Hutchison (#13) did better to close up 0.75 to close at 52.25.

Sinopec (#386) and China Telecom (#728) closed unchanged.

Tuesday, June 15, 2004

The market was steady in the morning but was unhappy with the results of the land auction. The price paid was 48% above the initial bid but within the top of the range predicted by analysts. The problem was it was not bought by Cheung Kong (#1)or Hutchison (#13)or any one of Li Ka Shing's companies.

You may recall that after the previous auction, the market was very blase even though the price paid was way above expectations. That is, it was blase until Cheung Kong owned up to buying it. Then it exploded.

After yesterday's more than 300 point drop, today was a shoo-in.

Monday, June 14, 2004

The market opened up and went on to over 100 points up in the morning. But by lunch time, it was down 6 points. Not much to worry about, right? Wrong!

After lunch, it went from bad to worst. Losing over 300 at one point. We managed to close just above 12,000. Whew!

To what do we owe all this? Worries about interest rates going up in China. There was a rumour that a plan to increase interest rates was submitted to the State Council. Tonight, the central bank denied the rumours.

What happens tomorrow? It's anybody's guess!

Thursday, June 10, 2004

A day late and a dollar short? Market down 72 to 12,267 at 10:47am.

China telecom (#728) up $0.075 to $2.70. The EGM yesterday passed all the resolutions clearing the way to acquire the new business from the parent. We are seeing buying in 1.2m blocks at the offer price. The 1.2m is significant because that is the maximum size block that can be entered in the HKEx's AMS3 system (600 lots of 2,000 shares each) in each transaction.

Cheung Kong (#1) and Hutchison (#13) were under a little pressure early this morning because the HKEx apparently nixed Hutchison's request for a waiver to spin off the Indian telecoms business within 2 years of including it in the currently proposed listing of telecoms assets. The Indian assets are needed to make the currently proposed listing to make it look good. Let's see how this plays out.

Sinopec (#386) down $0.025 on lower oil prices. Hmm. It's own costs should be lower too!

Tuesday, June 08, 2004

Market was up yesterday and today on the back of renewed rumours that QDII has been approved. The blue chips did very well yesterday, and good this morning. However, the market gave back most of the gains in the lated afternoon.

I still like Sinopec (#386) which is still trying to break through $3.00 and China Telecom (#728) which looks like finally going above $2.60 after the placements at $2.30.

Hutchison (#13) is trying to spin off their telecoms business. This has to be good for the stock as it will no longer be directly weighed down by 3G. What's good for Hutchison will also be good for Cheung Kong (#1).

Thursday, June 03, 2004

What happened? The HSI was down 350 at one point after lunch; down 271 for the day bring it below 12,000 (actually 11,929) again. Banks and property stocks took the hit.

Oil prices, the problems in Iraq were all given as reasons.

Nothing to do but listen to some good music: Sweet Dreams Are Made Of This by The Eurythmics. Another day another dollar.

Tuesday, June 01, 2004


At the swimming pool. Posted by Hello

HSI down 92 today to 12,105 after going up 6 days in a row. Time to take a breather?

Cheung Kong (#1) closed 57.75.
Sinopec (#386) closed 2.95.
China Telecom (#728) closed 2.40.

Not much direction today as the US market was closed for Veterans' Day yesterday. Who knows what tomorrow brings? Sounds familiar? One of may favourite songs.