Friday, May 28, 2004

We closed over 12,000 on the HSI today thanks mainly to HSBC (#5) 115.50. 'H' shares did very well on the back of the oil shares. Sinopec (#386) is apparently building a pipeline in Shenzhen.

Cheung Kong (#1) bears watching. At $58.75, it is trading at price/nav of 0.77. If it trades near nav it should be at least $76. However, remember, the nav is valued at last year's prices. At today's prices, it should be nearer $100.

China Telecom (#728) is trading at 1.44 times nav. A radio commentator suggested that it is therefore not a good buy as the price is higher than nav. That's assuming the assets will only earn 1.44 times its costs which is unlikely. One would assume that the assets will be earning profits for many years to come.

Property development companies basically buy raw land, convert it, and sell the developed apartments. Therefore, once the assets have been sold, there is no future profits stream other than interest income. That's why property development companies are valued based on nav. They must keep buying land for development in order to generate future profits.

Thursday, May 20, 2004

Hello! We were up over 400 yesterday and expected a consolidation today' which we are now seeing. Down 32 at the time of writing although it had been up single digit at some time in the morning.

China Telecom (#728) finally placed 5.8 billion shares at HKD2.30 a slight discount to the market close in the morning of HKD2.375. All the shares were snapped up and more were made available. Still a slight overhang as they had registered 8 billion shares. At 7.7 pe it is a good buy.

Wednesday, May 19, 2004

What a difference a day makes? One of my favourite songs by Laura Fygi.

The HSI is up 344 on HkD9.5 billion volume. Not a bad way to start the day. Caught a lot of people by surprise. Most did not expect the market to recover until after June. Just goes to show.

Tuesday, May 18, 2004

What a day! yesterday we were down >300 on the HSI. Looked to have been brought on by the hardline comments by Beijing on Taiwan over the weekend. Nerves are frayed.

There has been an outflow of hot money over the past 2 weeks, more as a result of USD strengthening on expetced higher rates than anything else.

Call me a conspiracy theorist but you won't see the big firms touting this market until the big china IPO's are ready in the 3rd quarter. How else are they going to sell the IPO's otherwise. The current low valuations are great for negotiating lower pe's for the IPO's.

You can buy China Telecom (#728) for 7x pe, and Sinopec (#386) for 10x pe. By the way, I hold these in my personal portfolio.