To paraphrase Paul Revere.
Moragn Stanley just announced a 4th quarter loss of US$3.59 billion, the first in its history, and an injection of US$5 billion. But this time, unlike Citigroup (US$7 billion) and UBS (US$10 billion), it is not the Middle-East cavalry that is coming to the rescue. It is the China Investment Corp ("CIC") the Chinese sovereign-wealth investment fund set up to funnel some of the excess trade surplus dollars back into the world market.
The CIC had previously made a US$3 billion investment as a cornerstone investor in the Blackstone Group's IPO. So far, only a minor portion of the earmarked US$200 billion has been used. The sub-prime crisis has single-handedly changed the landscape of international funds flow and ownership. This is a 180 degree turnaround from just a few short months ago, when the US objected to Dubai buying up US Ports, and to China investing in Unocal. Before that, the US also objected to Hutchison a HK listed company investing the Panama Canal on the dubious allegation that it is a defacto proxy of the Chinese Government. Now, Middle East and Chinese money is welcomed with open arms. Money is green and it doesn't matter if the owner is brown or yellow.
Chinese companies have also invested in Standard Bank (ICBC US$5.6 billion), Barclays Bank (China Development Bank US$2.98 billion), and Fortis (Ping An Insurance (US$2.7 billion). Chinese M&A deal flow has been mostly outwards with the top 5 accounting for close to US$20 billion while the top 5 inflows were a measly US$3.8 billion.
Just as the Middle East is recycling petrol dollars, the Chinese are recycling trade dollars.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Waiting For The Fed
The Federal Open Market Committee announced it would cut the federal-funds rate, charged on overnight loans between banks, by a quarter-point to 4.25%. The move met most expectations, although some had hoped for a half-point cut.
The Fed has cut short-term interest rates by a full point since its first move lower this year on Sept. 18. The Fed's accompanying statement mentioned apparently slowing economic growth, as a result of mounting damage from the correction in housing markets, as well as slowing in business and consumer spending. Those who had hoped for a half-point cut to the discount rate were also disappointed. The Fed cut the discount rate, charged on direct loans to commercial banks, by a quarter-point to 4.75%, which left the spread between the two rates unchanged.
To some, the Fed statement seems out of touch with reality and missed an opportunity to bolster confidence in the credit markets.
The accompanying guidance was difficult to interpret. It did not address the balance of risks between growth and inflation and appears to be a compromise with the inflation hawks. Although it did mention slowing growth, but it also said that "some inflation risks remain" because of energy and commodity prices. The language about inflation risks was identical to language in the last FOMC statement.
Is the Fed for real? It doesn't seem to know that the market is very weak and expectations are what is driving the market.
Markets reacted badly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 294.26, or 2.1%, to 13432.77.
The Fed has cut short-term interest rates by a full point since its first move lower this year on Sept. 18. The Fed's accompanying statement mentioned apparently slowing economic growth, as a result of mounting damage from the correction in housing markets, as well as slowing in business and consumer spending. Those who had hoped for a half-point cut to the discount rate were also disappointed. The Fed cut the discount rate, charged on direct loans to commercial banks, by a quarter-point to 4.75%, which left the spread between the two rates unchanged.
To some, the Fed statement seems out of touch with reality and missed an opportunity to bolster confidence in the credit markets.
The accompanying guidance was difficult to interpret. It did not address the balance of risks between growth and inflation and appears to be a compromise with the inflation hawks. Although it did mention slowing growth, but it also said that "some inflation risks remain" because of energy and commodity prices. The language about inflation risks was identical to language in the last FOMC statement.
Is the Fed for real? It doesn't seem to know that the market is very weak and expectations are what is driving the market.
Markets reacted badly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 294.26, or 2.1%, to 13432.77.
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
How To Fix The Sub Prime Mess?Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis
The Bush Administration is proposing to freeze the resets on sub prime loans in order for borrowers to be able to continue to pay their mortgages. This of course is politically expedient. But is it good economics, some ask. Many have condemned the proposal as going against the original spirit of the contract and therefore will undermine the competitiveness of the US dollar as a store of value, and the attractiveness of the US economy as the storehouse of wealth.
The argument is that if the rate on sub prime loans are capped, then the investors will suffer (i.e. get less interest than they expected) and borrowers will therefore benefit (i.e. pay less than they would have). Who would then buy US assets?
This is a "prime" example of classroom theorising vs. market savvy. We are often bombarded by learned commentators, professors and such like, that it's "Economics 101", as if the label itself gives it credence just like the pieces of parchment on their walls. My answer is it's "Market Behaviour 101" that matters.
By capping the rate on sub prime loans, lenders will be able to keep receiving payments. It's the income stream that matters. The alternative is that borrowers will just give up and hand the properties back. The banks will then have to try to sell the properties into a weak market, get much less than their original principal, and write-off the difference.
The recent price paid by a hedge fund for e-Trade puts this at about 35 cents on the dollar. Less me ask you, would you prefer to get 95 cents (by foregoing some interest) or 35 cents. Mind you, the increase of interest on reset was not a "sure thing", i.e. the borrower has the option to repay or refinance. Who knows, if this had not blown up, they may have been able to refinance. So the lenders are only giving up something which had a theoretical value which they may or may not have counted on in the first place. They may actually have expected the borrower to refinance and get the loans off their books.
So what are we asking them to do by capping the rates? Only that they refinance the loans at some thing close to the market rate and not punitive.
During the Asian Financial Crisis, the HK government was castigated by many "free market" thinkers for intervening in the stock market to stop speculators using it as a proxy for shorting the HK dollar. Similarly, the Malaysian government was pillored for imposing exchange controls. In both cases, the governments saw the need to protect the local economy from excessive outside intervention and took the appropriate steps. The current strength of the economies belie the dire predictions of the "learned" community.
Text books on economics are written after the fact. Different people will extract and interprete facts in different ways. In time, some of these lessons will be "Economics 101". People tend to forget the market is made up of individuals who are prone to the emotions of fear and greed.
When "sub-prime" loans were the thing to be in, the captains of our financial industry were greedily fighting their way to the "feeding troughs" to get a piece of the action, afraid of losing out. In the now famous words of a certain Mr. Prince, previously of Citigroup, "When the music starts, you have to dnace". Now that "sub-prime" is a pariah, the vultures are waiting for the carcass to rot (i.e. they want 35 cents on the dollar) and trying to scare off anyone who wants to take the not yet dead bodies away for treatment by saying "let nature takes its' course, let them die!"
That's "Market economics 101". Sometimes, it is necessary to take some action that the "pure" economists abhor. Let's try and save what we can. The alternative is that we will be faced with a bigger problem of a collapse as borrowers renege, banks start writing off bad debts, and the credit crunch becomes a black hole.
The argument is that if the rate on sub prime loans are capped, then the investors will suffer (i.e. get less interest than they expected) and borrowers will therefore benefit (i.e. pay less than they would have). Who would then buy US assets?
This is a "prime" example of classroom theorising vs. market savvy. We are often bombarded by learned commentators, professors and such like, that it's "Economics 101", as if the label itself gives it credence just like the pieces of parchment on their walls. My answer is it's "Market Behaviour 101" that matters.
By capping the rate on sub prime loans, lenders will be able to keep receiving payments. It's the income stream that matters. The alternative is that borrowers will just give up and hand the properties back. The banks will then have to try to sell the properties into a weak market, get much less than their original principal, and write-off the difference.
The recent price paid by a hedge fund for e-Trade puts this at about 35 cents on the dollar. Less me ask you, would you prefer to get 95 cents (by foregoing some interest) or 35 cents. Mind you, the increase of interest on reset was not a "sure thing", i.e. the borrower has the option to repay or refinance. Who knows, if this had not blown up, they may have been able to refinance. So the lenders are only giving up something which had a theoretical value which they may or may not have counted on in the first place. They may actually have expected the borrower to refinance and get the loans off their books.
So what are we asking them to do by capping the rates? Only that they refinance the loans at some thing close to the market rate and not punitive.
During the Asian Financial Crisis, the HK government was castigated by many "free market" thinkers for intervening in the stock market to stop speculators using it as a proxy for shorting the HK dollar. Similarly, the Malaysian government was pillored for imposing exchange controls. In both cases, the governments saw the need to protect the local economy from excessive outside intervention and took the appropriate steps. The current strength of the economies belie the dire predictions of the "learned" community.
Text books on economics are written after the fact. Different people will extract and interprete facts in different ways. In time, some of these lessons will be "Economics 101". People tend to forget the market is made up of individuals who are prone to the emotions of fear and greed.
When "sub-prime" loans were the thing to be in, the captains of our financial industry were greedily fighting their way to the "feeding troughs" to get a piece of the action, afraid of losing out. In the now famous words of a certain Mr. Prince, previously of Citigroup, "When the music starts, you have to dnace". Now that "sub-prime" is a pariah, the vultures are waiting for the carcass to rot (i.e. they want 35 cents on the dollar) and trying to scare off anyone who wants to take the not yet dead bodies away for treatment by saying "let nature takes its' course, let them die!"
That's "Market economics 101". Sometimes, it is necessary to take some action that the "pure" economists abhor. Let's try and save what we can. The alternative is that we will be faced with a bigger problem of a collapse as borrowers renege, banks start writing off bad debts, and the credit crunch becomes a black hole.
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Looking For 2 Rate Cuts From The Fed
Asian markets finished mixed, with Tokyo stocks edging lower. Hong Kong gaining on hopes of a U.S. interest-rate cut.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6588.80 - 0.13%
Bombay Sensex* 19529.50 - 0.38%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28879.59 + 0.77%
Japan Nikkei 15480.19 - 0.95%
Shanghai Composite 4915.88 + 0.97%
Singapore STI 3527.87 + 0.18%
South Korea Composite 1917.83 + 0.81%
Taiwan Weighted 8651.28 + 0.79%
*Late trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6588.80 - 0.13%
Bombay Sensex* 19529.50 - 0.38%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28879.59 + 0.77%
Japan Nikkei 15480.19 - 0.95%
Shanghai Composite 4915.88 + 0.97%
Singapore STI 3527.87 + 0.18%
South Korea Composite 1917.83 + 0.81%
Taiwan Weighted 8651.28 + 0.79%
*Late trading
Monday, December 03, 2007
HK Continues To Move Up
Asian shares ended mixed. Profit-taking drove Tokyo and Shanghai lower, while Hong Kong advanced on strong blue chips buying in anticipation of the Fed lowering interest rates..
China Railway shares surged 69% on their Shanghai debut, on expectations China's infrastructure demand will remain robust in coming years. This augurs well for the H-share debut in HK on Thursday.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6597.20 + 0.05%
Bombay Sensex* 19587.36 + 1.16%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28907.77 + 0.92%
Japan Nikkei 15628.97 - 0.33%
Shanghai Composite 4868.61 - 0.07%
Singapore STI 3558.61 + 1.06%
South Korea Composite 1902.43 - 0.19%
Taiwan Weighted 8583.84 - 0.03%
*Late trading
China Railway shares surged 69% on their Shanghai debut, on expectations China's infrastructure demand will remain robust in coming years. This augurs well for the H-share debut in HK on Thursday.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6597.20 + 0.05%
Bombay Sensex* 19587.36 + 1.16%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28907.77 + 0.92%
Japan Nikkei 15628.97 - 0.33%
Shanghai Composite 4868.61 - 0.07%
Singapore STI 3558.61 + 1.06%
South Korea Composite 1902.43 - 0.19%
Taiwan Weighted 8583.84 - 0.03%
*Late trading
Friday, November 30, 2007
Asian Markets Continues Strength
Asian markets finished mostly higher, as shares rose on expectations of a U.S. interest-rate cut.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6593.60 + 1.33%
Bombay Sensex* 19363.19 + 1.89%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28643.61 + 0.57%
Japan Nikkei 15680.67 + 1.08%
Shanghai Composite 4871.77 - 2.63%
Singapore STI 3521.27 + 1.24%
South Korea Composite 1906.00 + 1.51%
Taiwan Weighted 8586.40 + 1.65%
*Late Trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6593.60 + 1.33%
Bombay Sensex* 19363.19 + 1.89%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28643.61 + 0.57%
Japan Nikkei 15680.67 + 1.08%
Shanghai Composite 4871.77 - 2.63%
Singapore STI 3521.27 + 1.24%
South Korea Composite 1906.00 + 1.51%
Taiwan Weighted 8586.40 + 1.65%
*Late Trading
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Sub Prime Fatigue Sets In
The US market closed last night up 331 or 2.6% to 13290, a two-day rally of more than 500 points. Wednesday's buying frenzy was sparked by fresh hopes of a Fed rate cut, signs of life in the battered financial sector and plunging oil prices dwon $4 to $90.
The Fed said that the economy looks weak and that housing will not recover until late 2008. One of the Fed governors also said that the Fed must be flexible on interest rates. This is seen as code words that the Fed will cut interest rates aggressively.
All that, and SUB PRIME FATIGUE. It seems that daily one bank or another is setting aside provisions for sub prime based securities. It's gotten to the stage that if you do not announce provisions, the company is immediately suspect. Think about it! If everyone around you are taking US$8 billion provisions, you would be a fool not to take a similar amount even if you don't need it or need a lower number. You can always write it back when the market becomes more sane, and take a big bonus in that year. If you don't take a big enough number now, and come back for more later, your job is on the line.
Asian stocks rallied, tracking an overnight surge on Wall Street amid hopes of another interest-rate cut. Hong Kong and Shanghai both finished more than 4% higher.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6507.20 + 1.16%
Bombay Sensex* 19003.26 + 0.34%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28482.54 + 4.06%
Japan Nikkei 15513.74 + 2.38%
Shanghai Composite 5003.33 + 4.16%
Singapore STI 3478.22 + 3.22%
South Korea Composite 1877.56 + 2.34%
Taiwan Weighted 8447.03 + 2.06%
*Late trading
The Fed said that the economy looks weak and that housing will not recover until late 2008. One of the Fed governors also said that the Fed must be flexible on interest rates. This is seen as code words that the Fed will cut interest rates aggressively.
All that, and SUB PRIME FATIGUE. It seems that daily one bank or another is setting aside provisions for sub prime based securities. It's gotten to the stage that if you do not announce provisions, the company is immediately suspect. Think about it! If everyone around you are taking US$8 billion provisions, you would be a fool not to take a similar amount even if you don't need it or need a lower number. You can always write it back when the market becomes more sane, and take a big bonus in that year. If you don't take a big enough number now, and come back for more later, your job is on the line.
Asian stocks rallied, tracking an overnight surge on Wall Street amid hopes of another interest-rate cut. Hong Kong and Shanghai both finished more than 4% higher.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6507.20 + 1.16%
Bombay Sensex* 19003.26 + 0.34%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28482.54 + 4.06%
Japan Nikkei 15513.74 + 2.38%
Shanghai Composite 5003.33 + 4.16%
Singapore STI 3478.22 + 3.22%
South Korea Composite 1877.56 + 2.34%
Taiwan Weighted 8447.03 + 2.06%
*Late trading
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Yoyo Market
Asian markets finished mostly lower Wednesday, with oil companies and blue chips weighing on Japan's benchmark index, snapping a three-day winning streak. However, HK finished up slightly after to-ing and fro-ing all day. We expected the index to open higher and it did by about 120. Then it dipped into negative territory, and went back and forth. If not for the weakness in HSBC (#5) we would have finished up higher especially with the US up 215 overnight.
Bank of China (#3988) is still weak after Temasek the Singapore Government investing arm sold 5% of its' holdings. It seems to me that now may be a good time to buy BOC.
Other Mainland companies looking for cornerstone investors may now have second thoughts about the investment horizon of Temasek.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6432.80 - 0.94%
Bombay Sensex* 18942.84 - 0.97%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27371.24 + 0.59%
Japan Nikkei 15153.78 - 0.45%
Shanghai Composite 4803.39 - 1.19%
Singapore STI 3369.72 - 0.09%
South Korea Composite 1834.69 - 1.35%
Taiwan Weighted 8276.26 - 1.19%
*Late trading
Bank of China (#3988) is still weak after Temasek the Singapore Government investing arm sold 5% of its' holdings. It seems to me that now may be a good time to buy BOC.
Other Mainland companies looking for cornerstone investors may now have second thoughts about the investment horizon of Temasek.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6432.80 - 0.94%
Bombay Sensex* 18942.84 - 0.97%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27371.24 + 0.59%
Japan Nikkei 15153.78 - 0.45%
Shanghai Composite 4803.39 - 1.19%
Singapore STI 3369.72 - 0.09%
South Korea Composite 1834.69 - 1.35%
Taiwan Weighted 8276.26 - 1.19%
*Late trading
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Black Monday Follows Black Friday
In the US, the Friday after Thanksgiving is known as "Black Friday". The market reacted quite well, and HK followed suit yesterday going up more than 1,000. But last night, amid concerns about the fall out from sub prime, credit woes and recession fears, the Dow industrials tumbled roughly 240 points, more than erasing their bounce on Black Friday. The financial sector was particularly hard-hit, with Citigroup sinking 6% to less than $30 a share and Goldman Sachs off 4%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note plunged to a two-year low.
Asian markets followed the US lead down, though Tokyo and South Korea recovered from early losses to finish higher.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6493.60 - 0.61%
Bombay Sensex* 19143.32 - 0.54%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27210.21 - 1.51%
Japan Nikkei 15222.85 + 0.58%
Shanghai Composite 4861.11 - 1.97%
Singapore STI 3372.64 - 1.34%
South Korea Composite 1859.79 + 0.24%
Taiwan Weighted 8375.76 - 1.79%
*Late trading
Asian markets followed the US lead down, though Tokyo and South Korea recovered from early losses to finish higher.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6493.60 - 0.61%
Bombay Sensex* 19143.32 - 0.54%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27210.21 - 1.51%
Japan Nikkei 15222.85 + 0.58%
Shanghai Composite 4861.11 - 1.97%
Singapore STI 3372.64 - 1.34%
South Korea Composite 1859.79 + 0.24%
Taiwan Weighted 8375.76 - 1.79%
*Late trading
Monday, November 26, 2007
November 26, 2007
Most Asian markets rallied, as investors took heart from rosy U.S. shopping figures. Hong Kong surged 4.1% and Seoul soared 4.7%.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6533.20 + 2.20%
Bombay Sensex* 19247.54 + 2.09%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27626.62 + 4.09%
Japan Nikkei 15135.21 + 1.66%
Shanghai Composite 4958.84 - 1.46%
Singapore STI 3418.58 + 2.79%
South Korea Composite 1855.33 + 4.65%
Taiwan Weighted 8528.33 + 2.23%
*Late trading
Most Asian markets rallied, as investors took heart from rosy U.S. shopping figures. Hong Kong surged 4.1% and Seoul soared 4.7%.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6533.20 + 2.20%
Bombay Sensex* 19247.54 + 2.09%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27626.62 + 4.09%
Japan Nikkei 15135.21 + 1.66%
Shanghai Composite 4958.84 - 1.46%
Singapore STI 3418.58 + 2.79%
South Korea Composite 1855.33 + 4.65%
Taiwan Weighted 8528.33 + 2.23%
*Late trading
Saturday, November 24, 2007
The Thru Train Stops
Trading throughout the week was weak as the double whammy of sub prime problems in the US, and the news that the Chinese government is turning off the illegal funds flow dominated the news.
Apparently, the Shenzhen Branch of the PBOC (people's Bank of China, the Central Bank) instructed the Shenzhen Banks to limit the amount of cash that can be withdrawn by customers to try and stem the flow of illegally remitted funds to HK. The Mainland authorities were concerned that Chinese ccitizens were abandoning the Mainland market for HK where the same shares can be bought at a lower price.
The thru train (where chinese citizens will be allowed to invest directly in the HK market) has now been put back with no date. This is apparently caused by concerns that the Mainland investors are not sophisticated enough to play in the open HK market against foreign hedge funds who will offload shares to them at a high price. Hmm, interesting concept that. They can buy the same shares of dual listed companies in HK at a lower price than in China but we are still worried that they are buying them at too high a price in HK?
I guess since HK is an open market, the hedge funds can take their money and run which is not possible on the Mainland since China is a closed market. However that still leaves the investor with shares that are still cheaper than what they have to pay for them on the Mainland.
Apparently, the Shenzhen Branch of the PBOC (people's Bank of China, the Central Bank) instructed the Shenzhen Banks to limit the amount of cash that can be withdrawn by customers to try and stem the flow of illegally remitted funds to HK. The Mainland authorities were concerned that Chinese ccitizens were abandoning the Mainland market for HK where the same shares can be bought at a lower price.
The thru train (where chinese citizens will be allowed to invest directly in the HK market) has now been put back with no date. This is apparently caused by concerns that the Mainland investors are not sophisticated enough to play in the open HK market against foreign hedge funds who will offload shares to them at a high price. Hmm, interesting concept that. They can buy the same shares of dual listed companies in HK at a lower price than in China but we are still worried that they are buying them at too high a price in HK?
I guess since HK is an open market, the hedge funds can take their money and run which is not possible on the Mainland since China is a closed market. However that still leaves the investor with shares that are still cheaper than what they have to pay for them on the Mainland.
Friday, November 23, 2007
Uncle 4 Strikes Again!
After the yo-yo gyrations of the past few days. yesterday provided some relief as the HK market gained some precious ground. This time, it's because Uncle Four (aka Mr. Lewe Shau Kww) our local "Warren Buffet" told reporters that he thinks the market will still finish the year around 30,000, and he is putting some HK$10 billion into it.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6392.40 - 0.04%
Bombay Sensex* 18852.87 + 1.76%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26498.13 + 1.90%
Japan Nikkei** 14888.77 + 0.34%
Shanghai Composite 5032.13 + 0.96%
Singapore STI 3315.57 + 0.08%
South Korea Composite 1772.88 - 1.45%
Taiwan Weighted 8342.20 - 1.85%
*Late trading
**Closed for holiday
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6392.40 - 0.04%
Bombay Sensex* 18852.87 + 1.76%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26498.13 + 1.90%
Japan Nikkei** 14888.77 + 0.34%
Shanghai Composite 5032.13 + 0.96%
Singapore STI 3315.57 + 0.08%
South Korea Composite 1772.88 - 1.45%
Taiwan Weighted 8342.20 - 1.85%
*Late trading
**Closed for holiday
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Crude Oil at US$99 Per Barrel
Asian markets were mostly lower. Hong Kong and Shanghai shares felled on U.S. economic concerns and a broader decline in Chinese markets.
Crude-oil futures broke above $99 a barrel in early trading yesterday, and energy analysts see little to reverse the trends that have sent crude on its record breaking spree.
The weakening U.S. dollar, the currency used to buy and sell oil globally, is helping reinforce the notion that oil prices could remain high. The dollar sank to a new low against the euro yesterday on pessimism about the American economy and speculation the U.S. will cut interest rates again. Combined with strong global energy demand, the market appears willing to bear prices that would have shocked many in months past.
The survey of energy analysts did say, however, that prices would simmer down at the end of 2008, as the world's richest economies begin to slowdown.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6395.10 - 0.85%
Bombay Sensex 18526.32 - 0.40%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26004.92 - 2.30%
Japan Nikkei 14888.77 - 0.34%
Shanghai Composite 4984.16 - 4.41%
Singapore STI 3312.88 - 1.03%
South Korea Composite 1799.02 - 0.44%
Taiwan Weighted 8499.37 + 0.18%
Crude-oil futures broke above $99 a barrel in early trading yesterday, and energy analysts see little to reverse the trends that have sent crude on its record breaking spree.
The weakening U.S. dollar, the currency used to buy and sell oil globally, is helping reinforce the notion that oil prices could remain high. The dollar sank to a new low against the euro yesterday on pessimism about the American economy and speculation the U.S. will cut interest rates again. Combined with strong global energy demand, the market appears willing to bear prices that would have shocked many in months past.
The survey of energy analysts did say, however, that prices would simmer down at the end of 2008, as the world's richest economies begin to slowdown.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6395.10 - 0.85%
Bombay Sensex 18526.32 - 0.40%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26004.92 - 2.30%
Japan Nikkei 14888.77 - 0.34%
Shanghai Composite 4984.16 - 4.41%
Singapore STI 3312.88 - 1.03%
South Korea Composite 1799.02 - 0.44%
Taiwan Weighted 8499.37 + 0.18%
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
It's the US Economy Now, Is It?
Asian stocks fell sharply at concerns that the U.S. economy, the most important export market for many of the region's companies, would continue to weaken.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6450.20 - 0.62%
Bombay Sensex * 18602.62 - 3.52%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26618.19 - 4.15%
Japan Nikkei 14837.66 - 2.46%
Shanghai Composite 5214.22 - 1.50%
Singapore STI 3347.20 - 2.65%
South Korea Composite 1806.99 - 3.49%
Taiwan Weighted 8484.11 - 2.27%
*Intraday
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6450.20 - 0.62%
Bombay Sensex * 18602.62 - 3.52%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 26618.19 - 4.15%
Japan Nikkei 14837.66 - 2.46%
Shanghai Composite 5214.22 - 1.50%
Singapore STI 3347.20 - 2.65%
South Korea Composite 1806.99 - 3.49%
Taiwan Weighted 8484.11 - 2.27%
*Intraday
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
You Win Some, and Lose Some
Asian stocks and currencies regained some ground in a late-session sentiment shift, with currency moves highlighting an easing of the risk aversion that earlier weighed on markets.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6490.20 - 1.68%
Bombay Sensex* 19506.84 - 0.64%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27771.21 + 1.13%
Japan Nikkei 15211.52 + 1.12%
Shanghai Composite 5293.70 + 0.45%
Singapore STI 3438.27 + 0.78%
South Korea Composite 1872.24 - 1.12%
Taiwan Weighted 8680.86 + 0.00%
*Intraday
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6490.20 - 1.68%
Bombay Sensex* 19506.84 - 0.64%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27771.21 + 1.13%
Japan Nikkei 15211.52 + 1.12%
Shanghai Composite 5293.70 + 0.45%
Singapore STI 3438.27 + 0.78%
South Korea Composite 1872.24 - 1.12%
Taiwan Weighted 8680.86 + 0.00%
*Intraday
Monday, November 19, 2007
Chinese Regulators Order Lending Freeze
The Dow industrials tumbled more than 1.5% to close below 13000 for just the second time since August 16, dragged down by fresh worries about the housing and credit markets.
Asian markets ended mostly lower. Hong Kong stocks declined on concerns related to fund inflows from mainland China.
In an attempt to halt the rampant investment that is threatening to overheat the world's fastest growing major economy, Chinese regulators, over the past few weeks, have ordered commercial banks to freeze lending through the end of this year.
A China Banking Regulatory Commission official in Shanghai confirmed that local and Chinese subsidiaries of foreign banks have been requested to ensure that loans outstanding at year end don't exceed Oct. 31 levels.
Beijing's options are limited. Raising interest rates would lift the level of its currency, the yuan, to levels that exporters might find uncomfortable.
The lending freeze may, among other things, weaken earnings of key companies listed on the stock market and leave less cash in the financial system that might flow into the market.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6601.30 + 1.15%
Bombay Sensex * 19633.36 - 0.33%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27460.17 - 0.56%
Japan Nikkei 15042.56 - 0.74%
Shanghai Composite 5269.81 - 0.87%
Singapore STI 3411.72 - 0.85%
South Korea Composite 1893.47 - 1.70%
Taiwan Weighted 8680.71 - 0.96%
*Intraday
Asian markets ended mostly lower. Hong Kong stocks declined on concerns related to fund inflows from mainland China.
In an attempt to halt the rampant investment that is threatening to overheat the world's fastest growing major economy, Chinese regulators, over the past few weeks, have ordered commercial banks to freeze lending through the end of this year.
A China Banking Regulatory Commission official in Shanghai confirmed that local and Chinese subsidiaries of foreign banks have been requested to ensure that loans outstanding at year end don't exceed Oct. 31 levels.
Beijing's options are limited. Raising interest rates would lift the level of its currency, the yuan, to levels that exporters might find uncomfortable.
The lending freeze may, among other things, weaken earnings of key companies listed on the stock market and leave less cash in the financial system that might flow into the market.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6601.30 + 1.15%
Bombay Sensex * 19633.36 - 0.33%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27460.17 - 0.56%
Japan Nikkei 15042.56 - 0.74%
Shanghai Composite 5269.81 - 0.87%
Singapore STI 3411.72 - 0.85%
South Korea Composite 1893.47 - 1.70%
Taiwan Weighted 8680.71 - 0.96%
*Intraday
Friday, November 16, 2007
Curbs on Illegal Funds Flow
Asian markets fell, with Hong Kong plummeting 3.95% on worries that China is cracking down on illegal fund outflows into the city's stock market.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6526.10 - 1.04%
Bombay Sensex* 19698.36 - 0.44%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27614.43 - 3.95%
Japan Nikkei 15154.61 - 1.57%
Shanghai Composite 5316.27 - 0.91%
Singapore STI 3440.96 - 1.05%
South Korea Composite 1926.20 - 1.11%
Taiwan Weighted 8764.82 - 1.58%
*Late trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6526.10 - 1.04%
Bombay Sensex* 19698.36 - 0.44%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27614.43 - 3.95%
Japan Nikkei 15154.61 - 1.57%
Shanghai Composite 5316.27 - 0.91%
Singapore STI 3440.96 - 1.05%
South Korea Composite 1926.20 - 1.11%
Taiwan Weighted 8764.82 - 1.58%
*Late trading
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Wall Street Sneezes and We All catch A Cold
Asian markets ended lower following declines on Wall Street. Expectations of rising interest rates in China weighed on Hong Kong and Shanghai shares.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6594.40 - 0.84%
Bombay Sensex* 19784.89 - 0.72%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28751.21 - 1.42%
Japan Nikkei 15396.30 - 0.67%
Shanghai Composite 5365.26 - 0.88%
Singapore STI 3477.59 - 1.34%
South Korea Composite 1947.74 - 1.26%
Taiwan Weighted 8905.41 - 0.42%
*Late trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6594.40 - 0.84%
Bombay Sensex* 19784.89 - 0.72%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 28751.21 - 1.42%
Japan Nikkei 15396.30 - 0.67%
Shanghai Composite 5365.26 - 0.88%
Singapore STI 3477.59 - 1.34%
South Korea Composite 1947.74 - 1.26%
Taiwan Weighted 8905.41 - 0.42%
*Late trading
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
End of Correction? That is the Question!
The US market rose 316 overnight and HK went up 1,362 to close at 29,166 on HK$149 billion turnover. China Mobile up 9% and accounted for 363 points of the rise.
Property counters were all up except for New World Properties which fell against the trend. Mongolian Energy #276 fell 16% from $13.80 to $11.56 after rising as high as $14.42 and then falling to as low as $9.60 before recovering near the close.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6650.00 + 1.20%
Bombay Sensex* 19868.18 + 4.37%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 29166.01 + 4.90%
Japan Nikkei 15499.56 + 2.47%
Shanghai Composite 5412.69 + 4.94%
Singapore STI 3531.45 + 1.61%
South Korea Composite 1972.58 + 2.05%
Taiwan Weighted 8942.93 + 2.47%
*Late trading
Property counters were all up except for New World Properties which fell against the trend. Mongolian Energy #276 fell 16% from $13.80 to $11.56 after rising as high as $14.42 and then falling to as low as $9.60 before recovering near the close.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6650.00 + 1.20%
Bombay Sensex* 19868.18 + 4.37%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 29166.01 + 4.90%
Japan Nikkei 15499.56 + 2.47%
Shanghai Composite 5412.69 + 4.94%
Singapore STI 3531.45 + 1.61%
South Korea Composite 1972.58 + 2.05%
Taiwan Weighted 8942.93 + 2.47%
*Late trading
Monday, November 12, 2007
Yen broke 110 to the Dollar
Hong Kong ended 3.88% lower, Tokyo dropped about 2.5% and Shanghai shed more than 2. The dollar briefly fell below ¥110 before regaining ground. But the damage has been done. The market is waiting for the unwinding of the Yen carry trade.
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6523.30 - 1.27%
Bombay Sensex* 18669.20 - 1.26%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27665.73 - 3.88%
Japan Nikkei 15197.09 - 2.48%
Shanghai Composite 5187.73 - 2.40%
Singapore STI 3510.95 - 2.46%
South Korea Composite 1923.42 - 3.37%
Taiwan Weighted 8670.61 - 3.35%
*Late trading
Market Indices
Australia All Ordinaries 6523.30 - 1.27%
Bombay Sensex* 18669.20 - 1.26%
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27665.73 - 3.88%
Japan Nikkei 15197.09 - 2.48%
Shanghai Composite 5187.73 - 2.40%
Singapore STI 3510.95 - 2.46%
South Korea Composite 1923.42 - 3.37%
Taiwan Weighted 8670.61 - 3.35%
*Late trading
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